Iranian Nuclear Deal Has Both Challenges and Opportunities for Israel

• 03.08.2015, 22:30
• Greta Avetisyan
•  America,  Near East,  "Insight" Analytical Center ,  World,  Analytics

The past week in the US-Israeli relations was quite complicated and controversial. Everything started with the invitation of Netanyahu to Washington by House Speaker John Boehner without consulting the White House. In their turn the US State Secretary John Kerry and the US President Barack Obama declared that they will not meet the Israeli Prime Minister. Obama explained this kind of response by the fact that the White House policy does not allow to meet with foreign leaders soon before their election. The culmination was expected to be Netanyahu’s speech at the US Congress, where he was going to speak about the Iranian nuclear deal and its threats for Israel. However, the culmination was not that much painful, as expected.

To understand why all these started and in what direction moved, one should understand what the Iranian nuclear deal presupposes and what points there are that worry Israel. Iran and the six powers (the US, the UK, Germany, France, Russia and China) (P5+1) continue their talks to come to a final agreement. Last year the six powers set a deadline for the deal but it was extended twice.  The next deadline for reaching the final deal is March 31. If sides come to an agreement the sanctions imposed on Iran will be lifted. P5+1 demand from Iran to reduce in 10 thousand centrifuges it operates and stop uranium-enriched production. Earlier, in 2013 an interim accord was signed by Iran and P5+1. According to this accord in exchange for a partial relief from sanctions Iran undertook to stop enriching uranium above 5% and to make it oxide, not to increase its stockpile of low-enrichment uranium, not to install any more centrifuges.

Benjamin Netanyahu’s response to the upcoming Iranian nuclear deal was quite unexpected and in some case ambiguous. Before arriving in Washington the Israeli Prime Minister declared that he was making the trip because it was his obligation to "do everything I can to prevent" a nuclear agreement with Iran. Netanyahu declared that the upcoming deal with Iran could "threaten the survival of Israel", as Iran is considered a "sponsor of state terrorism." During such an expected speech  at the US Congress Netanyahudeclared that in case the sides come to an agreement over the Iranian nuclear deal that deal will not prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons, instead, it will guarantee that Iran will get nuclear weapons. "We can insist that restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program not be lifted for as long as Iran continues its aggression in the region and in the world. Before lifting those restrictions, the world should demand that Iran do three things. First, stop its aggression against its neighbors in the Middle East. Second stop supporting terrorism around the world. Third, stop threatening to annihilate my country, Israel, the one and only Jewish state," – Netanyahu declared, Jerusalem Post quotes his words.

What is the reason for such rhetoric from the Israeli side? It seems that the ban to make nuclear weapons would be beneficial for the whole world in general in regard with the elimination of the threat coming from it and for the Middle East in particular. In addition to all this, in case of coming to an agreement, Iran would also help the US-led coalition against the Islamic State. What fears Netanyahu is change of the balance of power in the Middle East, if sanctions are lifted from Iran. And it is not only Israel that has such fears. The success of the Iranian nuclear deal is also of great concern for the Sunni rulers of the Gulf. For the Gulf countries the Iranian nuclear deal means rising power of Shia Islamic Republic.

The Israeli argument that after the nuclear deal Iran will not stop its uranium enrichment should not be excluded.  Iran is now under sanctions and this hinders it to carry out different activities in the region and increase its role, hence the deal is in its interests.  Some progress in the negotiations of P5+1 also speak about this. Recently the Foreign Minister of Iran Mohammad Javad Zarif declared: "We believe that we are very close." At the same time reaching a deal will not guarantee that Iran will stop making nuclear weapons.

Concerning the other argument by Netanyahu that Iranian nuclear deal will be a real threat for the security of Israel is not so strong as the previous one. Lifting sanction will no way mean that Iran will immediately start a war against Israel or organize terrorist attacks. Most likely, Israel over and over voices about a threat to its security to later justify its more aggressive policy in the region – particularly its activities in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank, in Syria and Lebanon.

To conclude it should be stated that the Iranian nuclear deal has both challenges and opportunities for Israel – increasing role of Iran in the region and Israel's "justified" activities respectively. As for the US-Israeli relations, despite the existing tension, there is no groud for it to deepen, as both countries still need each other...