Will the Sides Meet the Deadline for Iran Nuclear Deal?

• 05.31.2015, 17:12
•  EEU,  America,  Near East,  World

Exactly one month left from the June 30 deadline the US Secretary John Kerry and the Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif met and had six-hour talks on the Iran nuclear program on May 30, 2015. As New York Times reports refereeing to the American officials, who preferred to speak on conditions of anonymity, the bilateral talks were "intense at times, but much focused and very comprehensive."  Before the bilateral talks with Kerry would start, the Iranian Foreign Minister in response to the question whether the sides would manage to meet June 30 deadline, gave a short reply: "We will try," the same source reports. In his turn the US Secretary John previously not once have commented on the importance of the deadlines noting that they act as "action-forcing mechanisms" for the sides to make tough decisions. All in all, will the sides meet the deadline on Iran nuclear negotiation?

The answer to the question will depend on the ability of the sides to come to terms on the major still undecided points, which refer to the so-called "effective verification measures" the West demands as well as on a schedule to lift economic sanctions on Iran.  As for the former one, the West continues to insist on the necessity of "wide-ranging" inspections, which according to them should include the possibility for International Atomic Energy Agency to interview Iranian scientists and to conduct inspection on the Iranian military sites. Although these two options were  categorically rejected by the Iranian  supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei after Lausanne talks,  Iran’s deputy foreign minister Abbas Araqchi noted in his recent interview that Iran had agreed to "managed access" in which inspectors could take samples "from the vicinity of military sites."

As for the schedule to lift economic sanctions, Iran is for accelerated lifting of US, EU and UN sanctions, while the P5+1 wants the so-called  "snapback" mechanism that will allow the sanctions on Iran come back in their place without new organizing new voting  of Security Council, which will allow the West to avoid Russia’s possible veto.

Although it is still uncertain whether the sides will manage to come on term on the major debatable issues, the parallel developments on the eve of June deadline, particularly the initiatives undertaken by Russia and US, demonstrate that these two countries are engaged in a kind of "preparatory work" for the Iran nuclear agreement. Among such initiatives the president Obama’s recent meeting with the representatives of the Gulf countries as well as the information spread in the media that the US had sent large quantity of the so-called "defense aid"  to Israel are important to mention. The same can be said on the disseminated information about the possibility of new deal between the US and Israel that would provide Israel with $3.6-$3.7 billion annually for defense spending (this deal, if finalized, is said to continue the one signed between the US and Israel in 2007, which expires in 2017).

As for the part of Russia, the recent news that Russia’s State-run Atomic Energy Corporation (Rosatom)  and Iranian Atomic energy organization are going to discuss future paths of  cooperation that can also include Iran’s supplying uranium to Moscow, is not by chance. All this proves that both US and Russia consider the possibility of final agreement on Iran very high, consequently find it appropriate to prepare for it beforehand later on to derive maximum benefits.