What are Possible Scenarios for Iran Nuclear Deal in US Congress?

• 08.31.2015, 16:05
•  America,  World

As the date for the US Congress to return from its August recess (each year, Congress recesses for the month of August) September 8 comes close, the speculations whether both Houses of the US Congress will finally approve or disapprove the Iran deal become more active. It is to be remained that after the US Congress received the details on the Iran Nuclear Deal on July 19 it has 60 days to review and vote on the deal. For the deal to pass it needs two-third of the voices from both Houses.

In case the US Congress disapproves the deal, the deal is to be sent to the president, who is likely to veto the decision of the Congress in 12 days, as the US president Barack Obama declared previously. In this case the US Congress will still have an opportunity to override the president’s veto in 10 days, but for this it will need two-fifth of the voices again from both Houses. In spite of Republican majority in order for the US Congress to override President’s veto, the Republicans will still need at least 13 Democrats in the Senate and 44 Democrats in the House. This is the reason the possibility of overriding the president’s veto is said to be low.

In this context it is important to note that the UN Security Council and the EU have already endorsed the Iran Nuclear Deal. On July 20, 15-member body unanimously approved the deal that that is to curb Iran's nuclear program in return for sanctions relief. In its turn the EU has also endorsed the Iran deal, with the EU ministers noting that there was no better option available.

If we come back to the US then we are to state that it is more likely that they will endorse the deal one way or another. However we will have two different pictures in case it is endorsed by Congressional vote or undergoes a presidential veto. If in the first case it will be a victory for the Democratic Party and for the President Obama personally, then in the second case it will further deepen the existing internal skepticism on the deal. In addition it will further deepen the doubt of the Iranian side about the American long term commitments on the deal.

Finally if one takes into consideration the fact that the deal has already been endorsed by the UN Security Council and the EU, no matter which of the scenarios the developments on the deal will follow in the US Congress, its consequences will largely be internal and will affect US national politics at the eve of presidential elections.