What Will the Resolution of Bundestag on Armenian Genocide Change?

• 06.02.2016, 18:05
• Anna Karapetyan
•  Europe,  "Insight" Analytical Center ,  Diaspora,  Analytics

The Parliament of the Germany has adopted today a resolution recognizing the Armenian Genocide. Only one parliamentarian voted against the resolution, and another one abstained.

Taking into consideration the role of Germany in Europe and long history of the relations of Turkey and Germany, adoption of this resolution will have its consequences in the overall political context.

In the context of the international recognition of the Armenian Genocide, one can expect that the recognition by Germany can lead other European countries also to recognize it.

On the other side, this can be viewed as an indirect pressure on Turkey - Europe will not support the policy of Turkey to hide the black pages of its history any more. So, Turkey will have to come into terms with the increasing pressure of the international community on the issue of the recognition of the Armenian Genocide.

In a broader context, this means that Europe will no longer go to excessive concessions for the migrant deal. This way Germany made a step to restrain Erdogan's rhetoric and show that the cup of the patience is already full. And this means that Turkey is being deprived of the feeling of "always being forgiven" and will have to conduct more restrained internal and external policy.

So, the "triumphal" times of Turkey and Erdogan is coming to an end, with all its consequences.

At the same time, the recognition of this resolution can also bring forth some threats. It is not excluded that by the instigation of Turkey or by its own initiative Azerbaijan will try to resort to new provocations on the border with Armenia and NKR. Also a tension may arise in the Diaspora, between the Armenian and Turkish communities.

Anyway, the adoption of this resolution is an important step both for the international recognition of the Armenian Genocide and for curbing the aggressive policy of Turkey. Not having great expectations, we can, however, say, that the recognition of the Armenian Genocide by Germany will give a start to a new political process.