What will Sargsyan and Aliyev Discuss in Petersburg?

• 06.16.2016, 12:52
• Greta Avetisyan
•  "Insight" Analytical Center ,  NKR,  Analytics

On June 20 Sarsgyan-Aliyev meeting will take place in Saint Petersburg, in which the President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin will also take part. After April four-day war, this is the second meeting of the Presidents.

Will the main topic of discussion again be the need for carrying out steps for the restoration of trust, or will the sides already refer to the political settlement of the conflict?

First of all it should be mentioned that the agreements reached in Vienna have mainly remained on the paper. Though the co-chairs have already delivered to the RA and Azerbaijani Foreign Ministers for the consideration of the sides draft documents on expanding the existing office of the Personal Representative of the OSCE Chairperson-in-Office and establishing an OSCE investigative mechanism, there are no concrete steps carried out for their implementation.

Second, the Azerbaijani side continues its destructive policy. Hate speech continues and it is heard from the highest levels. There is no atmosphere of trust between the sides, the creation of which should at least go in parallel with the negotiations over the political settlement.

So far as the agreements of the previous meeting are not implemented, it is at least logical that the Petersburg meeting should become an opportunity for the clarification (in regard with both timing and control) of different issues in regard with the previous agreements. It is obvious that it will be naïve to expect any progress in political settlement, unless the Vienna agreements are implemented.

However, the fact that in the meeting to take place in Petersburg, Russian President Putin will also take part, this may change the logic of the negotiation process and instead of discussing issues for the creation of confidence-building measures and introduction of investigation mechanisms, political settlement process may be brought onto the agenda. Holding this meeting in  Petersburg shows not only that the initiative of conflict settlement is in the hands of Russia, but also that with the highest level engagement Russia will try to at least signal the resumption of the political settlement of the conflict.

To sum up, it should be mentioned that Sargsyan-Aliyev meeting promises to be quite tense, during which an attempt will be made to clarify the uncertainty over the conflict and to move the "cart", but in what direction, will be clear only after the meeting or even a little bit later.