Syria Enters 2017 with Positive Expectations

• 01.14.2017, 22:33
•  Near East,  World

SANA/Handout via REUTERS

2017 for Syria has started with positive expectations. As the Syrian President Bashar Assad has mentioned, though the liberation of Aleppo is still not a final victory, it is crucial on the way to victory.

On Decmber 30, 2016 agreement on ceasefire in Syria reached with the mediation of Iran, Russia and Turkey entered into force. Tehran, Moscow and Ankara have become the guarantors of the document signed between the Syrian government and the opposition. The documents signed refer to the cesession of fire and the readiness to start peaceful negotiations.

The agreement on ceasefire is signed by opposition groups – in total 60 thousand people. This is informed by the Middle East Institutue. The ceasefire is not extended over the militants of the Islamic State and Jabhat An-Nusra. All those organizations that will not cease the military actions, will be considered as terrorists. On December 31 the UN SC unilaterally adopted a resolution supporting the ceasefire.

At the same time steps are undertaken to hold negotiations between official Damascus and the opposition in Astana. The negotiations, most probably, will take place on January 23. The list of the participants is still being prepared. The Russian side claims that Egypt can also join the Astana negotiations, and during the next stages Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Iraq and Jordan can join as well. Russian Foreign Minister has also expressed hope that Donald Trump's administration, after asuming the office, will join the negotiations.

Turkish President wants to see the representatives of Saudi Arabia and Qatar in Astana. At the same time, Ankara, as before, categorically rejects the participation of Syrian Kurds.

Despite the aforementioned facts, it should be mentioned that both the observance of the ceasefire and the perspective of peaceful negotiations are rather vague. The ceasefire agreement is kept with great difficulty and many violations, several groupings have already threatened to come out from the agreement, military actions in some parts of the country continue.

In its turn, the opportunity of having successful negotiations in Astana is not so big, because there is a lack of complete understanding among the initiating sides (Russia, Iran, Turkey), as well as the main actors in the conflict (US, Gulf monarchies) are not engaged in the process. Thus, even a possible agreement does not have many chances of sustainability.