Why Does Not the International Community Notice Erdogan's Plans?

• 04.13.2017, 11:24
•  Region,  Near East,  World

independent.ie

Few days are left till the constitutional referendum in Turkey, when people will express their attitude towards the transition to a presidential form of governance, which implies an expansion and legalization of Erdogan's sole power. World media refer to this fact very critically, but officials prefer to avoid this topic. Thus, the US has adopted rather restrained position towards the possible crucial political developments in Turkey, avoiding this topic. Such a policy of the US government is conditioned mainly by two factors. First, Trump still during his election campaign said that the democratization of other countries will not be his task, and the legitimization of Erdogan’s dictatorship is the last thing that the current US administration is concerned about in the relations with Turkey. At the same time, Trump is trying to repair damaged relations with Turkey and, unlike his predecessor, does not make sharp statements about Turkish authorities. Trump is trying to activate the American role in the Syrian conflict and, of course, needs allies in the region. As it is seen from Erdogan’s support to the recent American actions in Syria, Ankara is not against to cooperate with the United States in Syria.

It should be noted, that by and large these factors determine the Russian attitude towards the constitutional referendum in Turkey. Russia's foreign policy priorities do not include spread of democratic values. Russia is also trying to avoid unnecessary disputes with Turkey for cooperation in the Syrian issue, taking into account the Turkish influence on the so-called armed opposition. At the same time Moscow is not concerned about Erdogan himself: Russia itself had warned Erdogan about the plans to "overthrow" Erdogan.

Europe is probably the most worried about Turkey's constitutional referendum, rather expansion of Erdogan’s power, due to both its values and the geographical distance. Germany was quick to voice its attitude on the issue by banning rallies of supporters of Erdogan in its territory. Some other European countries, the Netherlands, Austria, Belgium and Switzerland followed Germany’s example. As a result, Turkey's relations with Europe are strained, and as we can suppose from Erdogan's statements, in the future they will remain the same, regardless of the referendum outcome.

In addition, it should be noted, that the constitutional referendum is of great importance for Erdogan. Although experts are confident that the draft will be approved, analysis of the survey results show that there is a chance that the Turks can reject the expansion of the power of Erdogan. Taking into account Erdogan’s political methods, in case of not receiving desirable results in the referendum, the political crisis in Turkey will deepen further.