Silaev: Lavrov’s Statement Regarding the Abkhaz Railway Was Not Just Another Statement (EXCLUSIVE)

• 05.10.2017, 15:38
•  EEU,  Region,  World,  Armenia,  Interview

 "Armedia" IAA presentes an exclusive interview with Nikolay Silaev, Senior Researcher, Center for Caucasus Problems and Regional Security, MGIMO University.

- Mr. Silaev, the Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov made a statement recently regarding the Abkhaz railway, saying that Russia was not against the resumption of these routes. How do you assess the prospects of this project and can we wait for the opening of this railway in the near future?

- Firstly, this was not just another statement by Lavrov. This was the first statement, when the Russian Foreign Minister expressed himself so clearly in support of the resumption of the railway communication through the territory of Abkhazia, and further to Georgia and Armenia. And also for the first time we heard the phrase concerning the readiness of the Abkhazian side to restore the railway, because earlier the Abkhaz leaders were quite skeptical about this issue. This does not mean that the railway will be restored and launched, because there is no agreement yet on the resumption of transit, and in order to have such an agreement, it is necessary that Georgia and Abkhazia decide this issue between themselves. In fact, of course, there is the so-called WTO agreement on trade monitoring, customs corridors between Russia and Georgia from November 2011. And one of these corridors passes through the territory of Abkhazia. Of course, if this agreement starts working, then a legal basis for the transit of Georgian goods will appear. But the matter is that this agreement quite unequivocally demands that Georgia conduct customs processing of those cargoes that it sends to the territory of Abkhazia. I doubt that the Georgian side will ever agree to such a scheme of work. Therefore, I would not expect a renewal of the railway communication.

- In that case, how should we understand Sergey Lavrov’s statement? Is that a political signal from Russia or is it the result of some agreements?

- I think that this is just a sign of Russia's readiness to start implementing the agreement on monitoring of trade. Russia is ready for this, and as far as I understand from the context, the leadership of Abkhazia is ready for this too.

 - The project of creating a certain transit, if it is possible to call so,  gas projects of Iran, Armenia, Georgia and Russia, are also being discussed. Is it possible to expect that some kind of axis will be formed, which can become the key to involve Armenia in regional energy projects in the future?

- I would not overestimate these initiatives. Much depends on what connects Armenia with Iran: so far the transport connection is not very intensive, there is not even a railway. Armenia receives Russian gas and is not "cut off" from regional energy projects. As for Armenia's energy industry, Armenia is the only country in the South Caucasus, where there is a nuclear power plant. In this sense, Armenia is one of the leaders of this industry in the Caucasus.

It seems to me that Iran's foreign policy is just beginning to change, due to the fact that this country has got out of the sanctions and so far it seems to me that its presence, both economically and politically, is not very much felt in the South Caucasus. It seems to me that the process of how Iran will build its policy, build its alliances in the Caucasus, will take several years. And it seems to me that the gas will still not be at the center of attention, although it is technically a very important opportunity to get an alternative to the Georgian transit administration.

- The cooperation of Iran with the EAEU was discussed and the contract was developed. In the short term, precisely in the context of Iran's foreign policy changes , is it possible to expect deep cooperation between Iran and the EAEU? What will be the role of Armenia in this project?

- I think that Iran will try to refrain from very deep involvement in any kind of regional economic integration projects. Rather, it will try to promote its trade through bilateral relations to achieve, as far as possible, more favorable conditions in the bilateral regime, although, probably, some kind of soft form of cooperation with the EAEU, such as the observer status, which does not oblige anyone to anything, maybe would interest Iran. In addition, a more important partner for Iran is the European Union. It is clear that the markets of the EAEU countries are not very significant for Iran, maybe, with the exception of Russia. Apparently, its main political interests are not in the north either, but rather in its own region, in the Middle East. And finally, it is such a long-standing position of Iran,  to pursue a diversified foreign policy, and as far as I can judge, try not to get involved in alliances if only the Iran does not see this as an urgent need.

The interview was held within the framework of the forum "The Great Victory Won by Unity: the Courage of the Front - the Resistance of the Back", held in Astana on April 28 and organized by the political center "North-South" and the "Institute of Eurasian Studies" development fund with the support of the Interstate Humanitarian Fund of the CIS member countries.