Elections in Germany: Are the Results Predictable?
The election of the German Bundestag is not far-off: the main contenders for the post of the chancellor - Angela Merkel and Martin Schultz - have already begun their campaign. And although the campaign has just begun, observers are sure that Merkel's fourth victory in the parliamentary elections is guaranteed. Currently, according to polls, the CDU/CSU union led by Merkel is at 39.5 per cent support, while the SPD of Schultz is trailing more than 14 points behind on 24.5 per cent. At the same time, this difference between the two main political forces has not changed much in the recent weeks.
It should be noted that Merkel’s bloc in its election program promises voters a reduction in taxes, assistance to families with children, reduction in unemployment, and strengthening of the national security. And these are the problems that Germans care about the most.
According to the results of the survey conducted by the Emnid Institute by the order of Bild am Sonntag, on the threshold of the elections to the German Bundestag, the German citizens are more concerned about education, ensuring a decent old age and fighting crime (more than 70% of Germans are concerned about these issues), than migration policy (29%) And an increase in defense spending (9%).
The Social Democrats are building their pre-election policy on these very issues. In particular, the party headed by Schultz criticizes Merkel's decision to increase defense spending, noting that Germany is turning into Europe's largest military power at the expense of the social budget, and that Merkel's position is weak compared to Trump, because this decision was taken at his insistence. The Social Democrats also criticize Merkel's migration policy. However, it is worth noting that they still don’t succeed in challenging Merkel. Analysts note that Merkel adopted the tactics used in the last two campaigns - to avoid confrontation with opponents.
In any case, analysts say that the election results are not so predictable. The number of undecided voters is increasing. Today every fourth voter is not sure about his participation in the elections. According to analysts, the undecided part of the electorate will be crucial for the results of the small parties, which can seriously affect the new political background formed after the elections.
According to polls, "The Left", "Greens", liberals from the Free Democratic Party and the right-wing radicals from the new "Alternative for Germany" can overcome the minimum threshold together collecting 35% of the vote. In case of forming a small coalition, they will have a crucial role in determining the German external and internal policies.
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