- The beginning of 2015 was intense as we witnessed tensions both on NKR-Azerbaijan and RA-Azerbaijan borders. In this context what are your assumptions on future perspectives in the negotiation process?
- The situation we witness is the result of both internal and global political developments. Taking into consideration a number of factors there are several scenarios of future possible developments that are to be identified.
First, taking into consideration the strained relations between the West and Russia in a number of issues, at the same time the sense of mutual importance they attach to each other, one can assume that the OSCE Minsk Group format can serve as an appropriate platform for Russia and the West to work and cooperate in a productive way, thus showing an example of a success story/a precedent. In this case each of the co-chairs will strive to achieve constructive cooperation.
In case of the opposite scenario, their confrontation and strained relations can also be expressed in the OSCE Minsk Group format. In this case each of the co-chairs will strive to monopolize the negotiation process trying to succeed in it individually; for this purpose using all possible means; exertion of all existing leverages on the conflicting sides included. The monopolization of the negotiation process by any of the co-chairs brings a number of threats with it; the evidence of which was James Warlick’s speech in Carnegie Institute.
Second, the parties engaged in the negotiation process can take advantage of different global developments. To put it more precisely
One should also take into consideration that this year is the 100th anniversary of the Armenian Genocide. In this context it is not excluded that
In June of 2015
Concluding all the above mentioned it should be assumed that some escalation is to be expected on the borders for the period from March to May, to put it more generally after European games.
Overall today there is no reason to be optimistic as no considerable progress seems to be expected in the negotiation process.