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Is "Kazan-2" Being Prepared?!

It’s already announced that Foreign Ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan will meet in New-York during the UN General Assembly. Obviously, the ministers will discuss the recent increase of the tension on the NKR-Azerbaijan and Armenia-Azerbaijan borders and violations of ceasefire regime.

At the same time, the intensification of the efforts of Russia as a Co-Chair of the OSCE Minsk Group is also widely discussed. In the context of the visit of the MFA of Russia Sergey Lavrov to Baku and the meeting of the presidents of Armenia and Russia Serj Sargsyan and Vladimir Putin, the topic of this tendency became a subject of hot discussions. In addition, speaking about the upcoming meeting the Foreign Minister of Azerbaijan Elmar Mammedyarov said that Russia is strengthening its diplomacy on this issue and there are some points to be agreed.

In the context of deteriorating relations between Azerbaijan and the EU, which was caused by the resolution of the European Parliament and Azerbaijan’s aggressive reaction to it, this announcement was a kind of a message to Moscow.

Russia in the present tense relations with the West tries to emphasize its role in the conflict resolution processes in the region. Syrian crisis is one of those examples. It cannot be excluded, that Russia, using its tools in the region, can also try to intensify efforts and increase its role in Karabakh conflict settlement. We have already come across to such an example during 2010-2011 when the sides with the help of Russian mediation were very close to signing conflict settlement principles.

In this context Azerbaijan can try to take advantage of the moment and show Russia its readiness to take a step for the progress of the negotiation process and "offer its services" to support Russia "to confront" the West. But Russia also needs some guarantees that the case of Kazan will not repeat (during the meeting in Kazan Azerbaijan refused to sign the principles) and the process will not collapse damaging Russia’s image. So, some arrangements on this issue between Azerbaijan and Russia are possible, but the sides have their interests and need some guarantees.

What concessions will be made? This can both be about the joining of Azerbaijan into the EEU and changes of some accents in the Karabakh conflict settlement.

In any case, Kazan's example showed, that Azerbaijan's promises can always change at the last moment. So Russia should be more consistent in its work with Azerbaijan and should be able to put enough pressure to reach corresponding concessions, for the sake of having progress in the negotiation process and building trust among the sides of the conflict. Russia should take into consideration that besides the present coincidence of the interests, common "enemy" can hardly be a base for long-lasting friendship. 

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