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Munich Security Conference: What are 10 Most Significant Risks in 2018?


The 54th international conference on security issues in Munich was attended by over 600 leading politicians and experts. As the head of the forum Wolfgang Ischinger noted, the world has come too close to the brink, after which serious armed conflicts begin. The course on the confrontation between Russia and the US has reached, in his opinion, to a threatening level.

Wolfgang Ischinger, the chairman of the Munich conference, is quite upset: "The Munich conference on security has come to an end, but the problems raised on it have not been resolved," he said.

The German diplomat drew attention to the fact that everyone in the world wants to end the arms race. However, according to him, at the conference, it was not clear enough what the concrete steps of the policy should be made in order to implement these plans and to "divert the dark future".

According to MSC, the experts of the analytical center ''Eurasia Group'' prepared a list of the ten most significant risks in 2018.

1. The probability of a trade war between the United States and China increases against the background of the political crisis in Washington and the development of China's trade and investment expansion.

2. The probability of incorrect actions, random errors, because of which one of the existing crises: Syria, Ukraine, the North Korean nuclear program, can develop into a full-fledged war.

3. The rivalry of world powers in the sphere of high technologies will soon harm globalization, world trade and security.

4. The abolition of a trade agreement between the United States, Canada and Mexico (NAFTA) may lead to an economic crisis and political instability in Mexico on the eve of the presidential election (scheduled for July).

5. Possible withdrawal of the US from a nuclear deal with Iran. New American sanctions will trigger unpredictable retaliatory measures on the part of Tehran.

6. Further erosion of trust in public institutions - from the media and banks to parties and governments - will result in a reduction in the predictability of world political and economic processes.

7. Eurasia Group also warns about "protectionism 2.0" - the likelihood of interstate barriers in the field of digital economy and innovation.

8. Delaying negotiations on Brexit. An endless discussion of the details of Britain's withdrawal from the EU is fraught with a political crisis in the country itself and the resignation of the government.

9. Probable prospects for the growth of nationalism in the countries of South-East Asia, which will lead to ethnic conflicts.

10. Destabilization throughout Africa due to the weakening of local authorities and the strengthening of Islamic radicals.

Despite the above mentioned risks, Ischinger proposed to continue the work and invited all the participants to meet again in 2019.

At the invitation of the chairman of the Munich Security Conference, Ambassador Wolfgang Ischinger, Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan also participated in the Munich Conference. In his speech, he touched upon Armenia's current foreign policy’s geopolitical conditions, effective cooperation of Armenia with the EAEU and the EU in the framework of integration processes, regional problems and challenges in the security aspect, the negotiation process on the settlement of the Karabakh conflict with the mediation of the OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs and the destructive policy of the leadership of Azerbaijan. The President also spoke about the commitments undertaken within the framework of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, stressing that the aim of the Helsinki process, which dates back to the 1970s, was the strengthening of security and cooperation in Europe, ensuring the solidarity of peoples, which, according to President Sargsyan, is still relevant today.

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