The extradition of famous blogger Aleksander Lapshin to Azerbaijan took place with serious violations of both international procedures and law. Not informing either Russia and Israel, the citizens of which Lapshin is, or even lawyers, the authorities of Belarus sent him to Baku. Such hurry can best be explained by the increasing international pressure on Minsk. With all possible channels Israel, Russia and Armenia were carrying out work (even coordinated) to prevent such an illegal step. While Belarus’ behavior (it was trying to complete the Azerbaijani order as soon as possible) gives a reason to assume that this was a part of a deal between Azerbaijan and Belarus. Sooner or later it will be clear what Belarus has received or will receive instead of Lapshin.
As for Azerbaijan, the personality of Lapshin does not have great importance for Baku. Here the main issue was organizing the extradition of a person, who had visited Artsakh, to create a precedent. Of course, not all countries would resort to serious violations of international law, but Aliyev succeeded in finding a necessary "ally" to carry out his plans. It is noteworthy that before Belarus, 13 countries had completely ignored Azerbaijan’s demands to extradite Lapshin.
Now Azerbaijan is using all its tools to make a "show" with the extradition of Lapshin. The task of the Azerbaijani propaganda machine is to create a precedent with this and threaten all those, who have visited Artsakh or have such an intention. Moreover, it should not be excluded that Lapshin will also be involved in this process and will be forced to come up with various announcements (we have seen such steps by Baku more than once).
In the created situation the main efforts of the Armenian sides should be directed towards failing the threats of Baku. Moreover, we should create an opposite precedent and use the incident of Lapshin towards increasing the international visits to Artsakh, engaging famous actors of different spheres as well. In such a case we can talk not only about the fact that "Lapshin’s case" failed, but just the opposite - it was a blow to Azerbaijan. At the same time we should continue our active work with international human rights organizations to keep "Lapshin’s case" at the center of attention.
As for Lapshin’s fate, we can assume that some time later, when the "show" created around Lapshin loses its actuality, Baku will extradite Lapshin to Israel or Russia. One should not forget that Lapshin’s extradition and arrest is not only a reason for tension between those countries and Azerbaijan, but is also a direct blow to the international image of both Russia and Israel.