The UK General Elections: A Challenge for Cameron and the Tories

• 04.11.2015, 10:43
•  Europe,  "Insight" Analytical Center ,  World,  Analytics

The past weeks of general election campaigns in the UK were a real struggle of Cameron with the other six. It is hard to say what will be the final choice of the citizens on May 7, but as the day of elections approaches, the struggle for the first place is between the Prime Minister David Cameron and opposition leader Ed Miliband - the two leading candidates.

The parties offer different perspectives on the spheres of defense, migration, education, taxation, environment and national health services. The debates among the party leaders have shown the biggest support for UKIP leader Nigel Farage - the most beloved person to be debating, as his artistry is incomparable to anyone else’s. But as it comes to real preferences the Conservatives’ leader and present PM David Cameron and the Labour leader Ed Miliband share the first place, contrary to a couple of weeks ago when Cameron was ahead with some points.  

One of the main points of Tory campaign is the referendum on leaving the EU if the latest does not agree to play on their rules. The Labourists oppose this idea. With an unexpected return of the most prominent and beloved former British PM Tony Blair and his view that the referendum will lead to nothing good but "chaos", the Labourists got a significant advantage on this issue. This referendum issue and Blair’s backing of Ed Miliband, turned the wheel into another direction. Now British political leaders are altogether doubting about the merits of an EU referendum, after the business community appeared to also share Tony Blair's opinion that the referendum would cause "chaos" and discourage firms from investing in the UK. This comes to prove business sector representatives will be experiencing great loses in different circles if the UK is out of the EU. Thus, Labour is hoping that its anti-referendum stance will help pick up votes from the business community that is otherwise sceptical about its ability to manage the UK economy. Also, we may expect that Blair’s intervention will bring its significant results and the major electorate that was once with him will now be backing Miliband.

Another important issue in this electoral campaign are the social issues. During one of the debates Cameron said: "We are not saying, ‘believe some forecast’, we are saying, ‘believe the record of creating a thousand jobs a day,’ and if we stick with the plan of keeping taxes low, making Britain an attractive place to invest, go on training the apprentices, build the big infrastructure projects like Crossrail, we can go on creating those jobs."

Opposing him, Miliband is underscoring the effects of five years of the Conservative Party’s austerity policy, the widening inequality gap and the losses of middle income earners. Saying "Cameron tried and failed to defend an economy that is shutting out most working people and an NHS going backwards" is trying to convince the people he will build a recovery that goes beyond the City of London

"All based on the idea that it’s only when working people succeed that Britain succeeds",- Miliband said.

As the BBC poll of April 9 shows, since November last year to April this year the parties have only registered some slight changes. As for now the Tory and the Labour are holding the same 33%. Meanwhile the April 8-9 YouGov poll showed 35% for Conservatives, 34% for Labour, 8% for Liberal Democrats, 12% for UKIP and 4% for Greens, leaving some 6% for the others.

As Cameron and Miliband cannot ensure their overweight in the percentage of citizens who are ready to give their vote to them, this elections might become a real platform of action for the small parties, who will in the future help form the majority.

In this light some rumors say Cameron is preparing an alliance with the Liberal-democrats others say he will be cooperating with the UKIP, overall electoral campaign seems to be a clash of the PM and other 6. It should also be mentioned that although Cameron shares the perspective of leaving the EU with the UKIP, he lacks Farage’s dramatism.

Immigration issue is one of the most important ones. As the country is now facing its' hardest times in this regard. On the one side it's the people leaving to join ISIS. In this regard the government announced it's going to be scanning the passports of all the passengers leaving the country. On the other side it's the immigration numbers that may even scare. According to the migration figures from the Office for National statistics, a total of 560,000 immigrants arrived in the UK over the 12-month period to March, while an estimated 316,000 people left. For the first time in nearly three years, the number of people migrating to the UK from outside the EU increased, to 265,000.

Cameron's promise in 2010 to decrease migration was not achieved, on the contrary the numbers grow significantly. This is the main card that Milibend plays. He does not have a strong viewpoint, but he is playing on Cameron's failure.  

Another factor is the Scottish National Party (SNP), who are said to be the third biggest force in the House of Commons after the Tories and the Labourists.  Although Scotland only has 59 constituencies (less than 10 percent of the overall number) the party is said to be taking 30-50 seats. Cameron announced the possibility of forming an alliance with the SNP. While Milibend rejected any possibility of forming a coalition with SNP, saying he is against any SNP in his party.

Another thing is that, according to a report released by the Organization for Economic Co-operations and Development, everyone agrees that the EU policy should be changed. According to the recent data received, the UK is Europe’s leading donor for overseas development aid. The report says Britain gave $19.4 billion last year becoming the second largest aid donor in the world, after the US. In a way, this fact gives UK a permission to demand for some of the rules of the EU to be changed the way they want, as "the one who pays, orders the music".  

In conclusion it is important to stress that sometimes the thing is not about faces, it’s about parties: will people chose the conservatives again and agree with the radical changes they suggest or will they prefer the Labourists who offer more stability? Or does Tory actually intend to assign a referendum on quitting the EU, if elected or is this just an election campaign?

However, one thing is obvious, Ed Miliband drives his party in a right direction to the victory, which is much likely to happen, notwithstanding the unpredictability of the situation.