Who Will Win the UK General Election?

• 05.06.2015, 21:57
•  Europe,  World

UK Elections seem to be as uncertain and unpredictable as ever. Forecasts and polls show it could deliver the most unpredictable outcome in 40 years. Two polls published on May 5, show that Labour and the Conservative Parties have the same number of voices both covering around 33%. Last week data showed that the Conservatives would end up with the most seats, but polls results of this week made it clear that this is not the case. 

It looks like that these elections are to be the tightest general elections, as some polls are even suggesting that there could be a dead heat, with Labour and the Conservatives ending up with the same share of the votes. It is considered that UK will face a hung parliament this year. This means that if no single party receives the majority of the votes, David Cameron will remain in office while negotiations  between the parties continue, and as the leader of the ruling party he will be the first to form a government, either through formal coalition or a looser alliance of parties. If he cannot, the party with the next largest number of seats, for example, Labour party, will make the next attempt to form a government.

What refers to the United Kingdom Independence Party it was considered that it would receive a lot of seats. But the recent polls showed that they slipped down from a high mark of 23 percent. But even that would be a stunning increase from the 3 percent share of the national vote they got at the 2010 general election.

Tories have also yielded their positions this week. The party has finished the week covering  34,5 % voices.  Amid all the uncertainties surrounding this election, there is one prediction – that no party will gain a majority, for which they would need 326 seats. The Tories didn't manage it last time and that was before the rise of Ukip. Recent opinion polls suggest that the Tories will win somewhere between 280-290 seats.

According to the Guardian’s latest  polls, SNP is beleived to win 55 seats, the Liberal Democrats - 27, the DUP - 9 and the Greens - to retain their one seat.

Despite the results of public opinion polls, British elections of 2015, remain the most unpredictable elections in the last 40 years. A hung parliament, not seen since 1974, with no effective majority or coalition appears to become a real picture. In order to form a Government, a party must be able to command a majority in the House of Commons on votes of confidence and supply. Taking into consideration the unpredictable fact of the election, it is considered that no single political party is to win an overall majority in the House of Commons. Though, both David Cameron and Ed Milibend deny the fact.