Spain: What to Expect After Elections

• 05.29.2015, 23:03
•  Europe,  "Insight" Analytical Center ,  World,  Analytics

As the local and regional elections were held in Spain  this week, the pre-election campaigns proved to be successful for some of the parties, improving their positions and increasing the percentages of their votes. At the same time these elections became the change that outlined the future developments in the political landscape of the country.

There were several points that are worth attention. The main one is that these elections marked an end of Spanish two-party system after about 40 years: People’s Party (Partido Popular) and Socialists. Two more parties that had recently stepped into the political arena joined the process: We can (Podemos) and Citizens (Ciudadanos). Podemos  came to act after the mass protests in the country in 2011-2012, and was founded in January 2014. Now to some extent they may have a decisive role in the future policy of the country. Ciudadanos was also formed as a result of protests against the Government. The only difference is that Ciudadanos was formed in Catalonia, afterwards spread to all over Spain.   

In typically European style the EU in the face of Federica Mogerini calls them - the "anti-austerity Podemos and market-friendly Ciudadanos". What if they combine their forces?

In fact among the Socialists there are some new young and promising faces, but the election results showed that it's not enough to get the majority votes. They only managed to weaken the positions of the ruling People’s Party.

On the other hand it should be noted that such new movements as left Podemos and the centre-right Ciudadanos, demonstrated impressive results for beginners, but not good enough to bring any change: around 12% and 6% of the vote respectively.

The radical Podemos has turned into an instrument for forming a majority, and there is an opinion that it will form a government in alliance with the Socialists during the upcoming elections. It may not be a radical turn for the country but it is already something.

The past elections proved that  the ruling People’s Party is gradually losing its local and regional power. Madrid and Barcelona, are now likely to be ruled by parties called "indignados" (from Spanish- "outraged", also named as 15-M Movement or anti-austerity movement in Spain). Podemos and Ciudadanos are these "indignados", as they evoked in different times as a result of civilian protests and their birth may be prescribed to social networks, other civilian platforms and small associations. They showed their power in two big cities of Spain. Prime Minister Rajoy expressed his disappointment with this fact that they can take the control over the capital.

The movement that denies unemployment, reduction of welfare and country's two-party political system, gathered for the first time in Madrid's Puerta del Sol square in 2011. Their demands seemed to be basic human rights at the first sight, but the movement managed to gather thousands of demonstrators. This shows the despair of the Spanish people and the fact that they are sick of the present government.

The existing situation seems to be hard for everyone. The Socialists are not sure what choice awaits them, thus prefer not to speak about the future. The population, that is willing to express its mistrust to the ruling political elite, and has been by Podemos, now sees the possible coalition with the Socialists as a bad idea, as for them the Socialist party is no better than the Conservatives. One thing is clear regarding the Socialists: whether they like it or not if they want to form a majority after the next general election, Podemos seems to be their only possible way towards it. If Podemos succeeds to have a majority and take over Madrid or Barcelona, it will be a perfect call not only for the skeptical Socialists but for everyone.

In reality, as the two main parties are not capable of receiving the majority on their own, these small parties will be the ones who will shape the whole political picture and change the political discourse.

As we can see Spain is moving towards serious changes, which will be reflected both on the results of the general elections in December and on the future of the country. From now on the Spanish people deny Conservative's rule- a process that can also be viewed in the neighboring France. Radicalism becomes  more and more actual in Europe. In Spain rise of radicalism may have positive and negative consequences. First it will satisfy the needs of the autonomies and will be able to talk to them on equal grounds: the demands of the autonomies and very often the autonomies are themselves radical. Another thing is whether it's worth risking and forming a radical government?

In conclusion it should be stated that it is time for Mr Rajoy to understand that his policy no more satisfies the country's citizens: the policy he is implementing is outdated. Spanish people want to see new faces, new and fresh approaches in politics and they want to be listened to.