Iran and P5+1: Red Lines

• 06.22.2015, 19:03
• Greta Avetisyan
•  Near East,  World

As June 30 – the deadline for the Iranian nuclear deal approaches, the predictions whether the sides will meet that deadline or not become more and more. As if to put an end to all those predictions the Foreign Minister of Iran Mohammad Javad Zarif on June 21 declared that it is quite possible that the negotiations over the Iranian nuclear deal continue after June 30, stressing that Iran wants a good deal and for that reason they should not "feel pressed for time." As the iranproject.com reports, the Iranian Foreign Minister has also ensured that Iran will not give in the demands of the six world powers and it has already proved that.

But what are the reasons for such speculations concerning meeting the deadline and of course, the reason for such a statement by the Iranian Foreign Minister?

One of the crucial points around which the sides cannot come to an agreement is question of inspections in all sites, where nuclear activities may be. Tehran constantly declares that no military inspection will be allowed under any deal. Tehran calls this point as an "excessive demand." The six world powers say that Iran should implement its commitments undertaken by Additional Protocol of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, when the deal is signed. The Additional Protocol gives the IAEA permission to visit nonnuclear sites. However, Iran claims that, as AlJazeera reports, it allows "some access" but not inspections of military sites. It should be noted that Iran has signed the Additional Protocol in 2003, but has not ratified it. However, from 2003-2006 it has implemented the Additional Protocol, after which it has declared will not implement it any more.

"States that have signed Additional Protocol Agreements with the IAEA agree to provide the IAEA information about, and IAEA inspector access to, all parts of a State's nuclear fuel cycle—including uranium mines, fuel fabrication and enrichment plants, and nuclear waste sites—as well as to any other location where nuclear material is or may be present. States also agree to provide information on, and IAEA short-notice access to, all buildings on a nuclear site. The Protocol provides for IAEA inspectors to have "complementary" access to assure the absence of undeclared nuclear material or to resolve questions or inconsistencies in the information a State has provided about its nuclear activities," says the Protocol. If Iran calls this "some access," then let it be, but reading the Protocol, it becomes obvious that there is nothing written exactly on military inspection and whether by saying inspector access one can also understand a military one, depends on one's interpretation and of course, interests. If Iran has agreed to implement the Additional Protocol under a deal, then, most probably, at the initial stage there has not been any discussions on military inspection and that made Iran feel comfortable with that point.

Another issue the sides cannot come to an agreement is lifting of the sanctions. Iran demands the sanctions to be lifted immediately after there is a deal, while P5+1 do not agree with this, as they suggest lifting the sanctions phase by phase. It should be mentioned that only sanctions related to nuclear activity will be lifted and not human rights or terrorism sanctions.

Opponents of nuclear deal with Iran, particularly Israel, claim that if sanctions are lifted, then Iran will use its money coming from the already expended economy, to fund terrorism, destabilize the region and become a threat for Israel. However, this is a claim that cannot be proved unless the sanctions are lifted.

While talks continue, Iran does not lose any time. On June 21, 199 of 213 Iranian lawmakers voted in favor of a bill, which bans access to military sites, also requires complete lifting of all sanctions as a part of a final deal, stripes.com reports. To become a law, the bill must be ratified by the Guardian Council, a constitutional watchdog.  The Bill gives "access to military, security and sensitive non-nuclear sites, as well as documents and scientists, is forbidden". The bill also would require Iran’s Foreign Minister to report to parliament every six months on the process of implementing the accord, The Guardian reports.

 All these developments suggest that none of the sides are ready to make compromises on the remaining disputed issues any more, as if seeing these points their red lines. Whether there will be a final deal till June 30 or not, is difficult to say, but the fact that the sides will not throw all their efforts away and start from scratch, is obvious. At this moment both Iran and the P5+1 need some changes, positive ones, so as it was possible to move forward, to at last breath and be able to face the challenges that come from quite a complicated situation in the Middle East, the tense relations between the West and Russia...