Russian Revenge: Turkey Can be Paralyzed

• 11.27.2015, 18:52
•  EEU,  Region,  World,  Analytics

The escalation of Russian-Turkish relations continues to deepen. Mutual allegations go on at diplomatic level. The Russian side says the downing of the Russian Su-24 bomber is a betrayal, noting that Russia wants Turkey apologize, pay compensation for damage and punish those who are guilty for the incident.

However, Turkey has no intention to do so. In an interview with CNN, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Turkey will not apologize for downing a Russian fighter jet. "I think if there is a party that needs to apologize, it is not us. Those who violated our airspace are the ones who need to apologize," he said.

After such announcements a tough response is expected from Russia. And its answer is not going to be late, though the Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov says "no one is going to combat war with Turkey".

Russia's Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu said the Russian Air Force base in Latakia will be reinforced with S-400 SAM system, which will soon be deployed there, RT reports. The S-400 is employed to ensure air defense using long- and medium-range missiles that can hit aerial targets at ranges up to 400 kilometers. The S-400 is capable of hitting tactical and strategic aircraft as well as ballistic and cruise missiles. The threat is really big. This is the reason why Turkey halted its flights over Syria.

Some sources say the Russian Air Forces have bombed the Turkish humanitarian aid for the Syrian Turkmen rebels. The others say Rashid Bagdash, the Turkmen general who planned the downing of the Russian jet, was killed.

This is not the end. Russia threatens to paralyze the Turkish economy that has already suffered during latest years. Russia may impose sanctions on Turkey, close its airspace and marine ports, as well as can suspend joint projects with Turkey and leave it without Russian tourists, the Russian Prime Minister said.

To understand what consequences it can have on Turkish economy it should be noted that almost 55% of the fuel that is used in Turkey for domestic needs is being imported from Russia. Economists say the Russian sanctions may cost 50 billion dollars for Turkey.

Moreover, some Russian political forces speak about the need to support Turkey's internal dissatisfactions, particularly, Kurdish aspirations for an independent state.

Taking into consideration the abovementioned and the fact that Turkey is a NATO member-state, some analysts speak about the possibility of beginning the Third World War.

How dangerous is the situation?

During the five years of the Syrian conflict Russia and Turkey managed to deepen their economic cooperation despite the extremely contradictory positions on crisis. This proves that these countries are able to put aside their political disagreements for the sake of economic interests.

The problem is that Russian Air Force and the Syrian Army have intensified their military actions in the Northern Syria. This is the area where Turkey wants to create a buffer zone, the area, where the armed groups that receive support from Turkey are fighting. This is the reason of Turkey’s aggressive behavior.

Russia is also aware of this, and hardly wants to lead Russia-Turkey relations to a final deadlock. From this point of view it is expected that the relationship between the sides will be improved in the near future. There is already a positive change: Turkey’s President called on Putin to meet on November 30 in Paris.

This means those, who are extremely excited by the deterioration of the Russian-Turkish relations will not have the opportunity to enjoy it for a long time.