Iran Enters 2016 with Entirely New Perspectives

• 01.06.2016, 17:36
• Arpine Hovsepyan
•  Region,  "Insight" Analytical Center ,  Analytics

2015 was truly a turning point for Iran. The country enters the 2016 with entirely different perspectives. 

 

"The agreement of the century" and its influence on the geopolitical developments

Negotiations between Iran and the Six Wold Powers (the US, France, Great Britain, Russia, China, Germany) that started in 2006 recorded first success in April 2015 when it was announced that "a solution was found". As a result of the agreement that was reached through mutual concessions three months later on July 14 the nuclear deal was signed which was qualified as "the agreement of the century". The main idea of the deal is that the sanctions against Iran should be released in return to limiting its nuclear program. At the same time, Iran will continue its atomic program for peaceful purposes.

Iran that has a population of about 80 million is now given the opportunity to recover and become a regional power in the near future. A new page is due to open in Iran-EU relations. Within the intensive visits of the representatives of France, Germany, Italy, Great Britain and other European countries to Tehran the parties agreed to establish cooperation in various fields. Active steps are being taken to promote foreign investment in Iran. In its turn Iran announces about its intension to double the oil exports in parallel with the lifting of international sanctions. At the same time we see the deepening of cooperation between Moscow and Tehran especially in military, economic and energy fields. Iran declares readiness to supply gas to some Gulf Arab countries.

It is expected that after the signing of the deal which arose Iranian President Hassan Rouhani's reputation Iran and its society will become more open to the world, taking into consideration the fact that Iran’s current President is the representative of the moderate wing. As a proof it should be noted that after the signing of the nuclear deal a woman was appointed as an ambassador for the first time.

At the same time Iran is not losing its alertness. Iranian military command regularly announces about conducting military exercises and medium-range ballistic missile tests, stressing that the loss of the revolutionary spirit can be catastrophic for Iran.

 

Iran significantly increases its involvement in regional conflicts

Iran gradually becomes a powerful actor in the Middle East without hiding its desire to take an active role in the region. The isolation of Iran that has huge energy resources was profitable for many countries, among them Israel, Saudi Arabia, Turkey. Their importance as Western regional main partners is going to decrease because now they will have to share this role with Iran. This is the reason why the struggle for zones of influence between these countries has escalated. The Gulf Arab countries announce about creation of united structure to restrain the strengthening of Iranian influence. Due to "the Iranian threat" Turkey and Israel began improving their relations.

Iran has significantly increased its involvement in regional conflicts, especially in Syria. It is about both military and political involvement. The presence of Iranian troops and weapons in Syria has become more obvious. At the same time the Iranian Republic has proposed a 4-point solution for the Syrian crisis.

The Western countries had to accept that Iran can and must be part of the Syrian conflict settlement process. This is the reason why Iran was involved in Vienna peace talks. The international community realizes that Iran is the only country in the region that can actually fight against the Islamic State. And this fact significantly increases Iran’s weight as a regional actor.

During the year Iran also increased its indirect involvement in Yemen and Iraq where Saudi Arabia and Turkey try to stop further expansion of the Iranian influence.

 

Perspectives for Armenia – Iran cooperation

The news of the nuclear deal between Iran and world powers was accepted in Armenia with enthusiasm. As the Armenian Foreign Minister Edvard Nalbandian stressed, "comprehensive settlement will contribute to strengthening stability and cooperation in the region".

It is expected that in parallel with the lifting of sanctions Iran will have huge economic growth, becoming No. 1 country in the region in terms of economy. It creates serious opportunities for deepening Armenian-Iranian cooperation in such fields as transport, energy and trade. The prospect of Iran-Armenia-Georgia energy cooperation is being actively discussed. Armenia’s active initiatives, new ideas and intensive work are needed.

From this point of view Armenia can have a key role in the implementation of future cooperation between Iran and the Eurasian Economic Union, taking into consideration the fact that Russian President Vladimir Putin during his visit to Iran said the EEU will begin considering the possibilities of creating a free trade zone with Iran. By the way, Iran is also interested in enhancing of bilateral economy relations with Armenia which became obvious during Iran's First Vice-President Eshaq Jahangiri’s visit to Armenia.

In conclusion it should be noted that 2015 was a breakthrough year for Iran, a beginning of a new historical era. From now on the world will deal with new, more self-confident and powerful Iran.