The Perspectives of NKR Recognition by Armenia

• 05.05.2016, 11:12
•  Region,  Armenia,  NKR

i1os.com

The draft bill on "Recognizing the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic", which was submitted by opposition MPs of the RA Zaruhi Postanjyan and Hrant Bagratyan, will be discussed at the session of the Government of Armenia on May 5. The Government’s preliminary conclusion on the draft says: "The Government of Armenia links the adoption of the presented draft to results of the discussions between Armenia and Artsakh, taking into account further developments, including external factors". This is not the first time that the authorities of Armenia are considering similar bills (similar bills were proposed in 2007, 2013 and 2014 by Zaruhi Postanjyan), but this time discussions are taking place in very different conditions.

The previous bills were rejected with the justification that the recognition of NKR independence will damage the negotiation process and lead to resumption of hostilities. This time, also, it is most likely that the Government will approve not the draft bill, but the conclusion on it, and the draft will not be approved by the RA National Assembly. In this regard, Deputy Foreign Minister of Armenia Shavarsh Kocharyan said on May 3 that "according to the Government’s conclusion, the recognition of NKR will depend on further developments of the situation. If Azerbaijan launches new military campaign, the issue of recognition of Nagorno-Karabakh Republic will enter into the agenda":

The Armenian side presents the recognition of NKR as a concession in the negotiation process, and has always declared that will resort to such a step in case of military or any other adventures of Azerbaijan. So here a questions rises: why Armenia did not use the four-day war as an opportunity to recognize Artsakh? The reason is that Armenia chose another important mechanism from its "arsenal" -  drafting and signing of a military agreement on mutual assistance between Armenia and NKR. Such a contract, of course, completely transfers the relationship between Armenia and NKR to another level influencing on the atmosphere created around the conflict as well. As for the possibility of NKR recognition, then it certainly still remains a key tool, which will be used in case of possible new inadequate Azerbaijani initiatives. Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan spoke about this logic in the meeting with ambassadors of the OSCE countries during the four-day war: "I have instructed the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to work towards signing an agreement wuth Nagorno-Karabakh on mutual military assistance. And here I would like to state what I have declared on many occasions - should military actions continue and escalate into larger scales, the Republic of Armenia will recognize the independence of Nagorno-Karabakh".

In conclusion, we can say that at this stage the adoption of the bill on NKR recognition is unlikely, because of the time appropriateness of the problem and the logic of the negotiation process. Now the recognition of NKR by Armenia will mean suspension of the negotiations and will confirm the thesis voiced by Azerbaijan, that Yerevan allegedly refuses a peaceful settlement. In fact, Baku has already responded to the NKR recognition process calling it a "provocation by Armenia's leadership" and demanding from the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairing countries to express their attitude towards this issue.