Is Israel’s Optimism over Trump Realistic?

• 11.15.2016, 16:54
• Arpine Hovsepyan
•  America,  "Insight" Analytical Center ,  World

Reuters

Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential elections has led to different responses in different countries, from enthusiasm to disappointment. The news about Trump’s election was accepted with great enthusiasm in Israel. The country expects Trump to raise the level of relations between the US and Israel, overcoming the obstacles that appeared during the period of Democrat Barack Obama's presidency. Moreover, Israel even says that "the era of a Palestinian state is over" after Trump’s victory. What is this optimism conditioned by and is it realistic?

Israel’s enthusiasm has at least several reasons. The first one is, of course, Trump’s Anti-Iranian rhetoric. Even during the election campaign Trump said it is "the worst deal ever negotiated". He promised it would be his "No. 1 priority if elected". Some people claimed Trump would cancel nuclear deal.

Second, Israel is sure Trump will support Jewish settlements policy unlike Obama’s administration that reacts quite tough to these plans, saying they may cause great harm to the solution of the conflict. Moreover, some people think Trump may help legitimize Israel’s demands over the whole Jerusalem, moving the US Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. During the presidential campaign Trump said "the United States under his administration will recognize Jerusalem as the only true capital of Israel". In general, Israel expects full support from Trump without exceptions.

Third, it is expected that Trump will maintain close relationship with the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, unlike difficult relations between Obama and Netanyahu. It is even expected that like the dialogue with Russian President Vladimir Putin Trump will work with "strong boys" in Middle East, among them – Netanyahu.

The first positive "message" Israel has already received. During the phone conversation with Netanyahu Trump invited him to Washington "at the first opportunity". But it does not mean yet Israel’s expectations are justified.

Trump’s policy advisers have already begun making amendments. Particularly, nobody speaks about canceling the nuclear deal. Now they speak about reviewing some issues or renegotiating but without any specificity. Besides, the nuclear agreement is a multilateral deal that needs conformity of all sides in order to be canceled. As for the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, the tone of the statements has been softened, now they speak about the possibility of brokering between the sides.

To sum up, the optimism of Israel over Trump’s presidency does not seem realistic in every issue. Of course, one may expect that Trump’s presidency can help to overcome the difficulties of the relations between the US and Israel that exist today, but it is not realistic to expect a significant change in the American position in case of Palestinian-Israeli conflict. The same way it is not realistic to expect Trump to cancel the nuclear deal, but instead of it the US security assistance to Israel may increase.