What is the Goal of Turkey's Operation in El-Bab in Syria?

• 11.28.2016, 22:10
•  Near East,  World,  Analytics

bbc.com

Оn November 18 Turkey announced the start of military action in El-Bab in Syria. The Turkish operation of liberation of El-Bab from ISIS is initiated by Turkey, and the US-led coalition, according to a senior US military, has no relation with it. At the same time YPG Kurdish militia forces announced that they are leaving Manbij, while in response to Turkish threats, they had announced that will never leave the city. The Kurds claim that they have not given the city to others, as according to the established practice, they have transfered the protection of liberated regions to the locals and the military council (in Manbij mainly Arabs live towards whom Turkey does not have that negative approach). In any case, as Ankara had planned after "Euphrates Shield" operation began, the Kurds left to the east of Euphrates.

It should be noted, that Manbij and El-Bab have strategic importance for the Syrian Kurds, as the control of the latter will give them the opportunity of uniting the Kurdish areas of northern Syria with Afrin enclave. In August the distance between the two Kurdish regions was only 25 km.

After Manbij liberation from ISIS, which by the way was the most brutal fight for the Kurds throughout the Syrian conflict, El Bab liberation became the final step to establish a unified Kurdistan in northern Syria. Turkey has repeatedly stated that the creation of a Kurdish state in northern Syria is unacceptable for him and mainly such successes of Kurds made Turkey start "Euphrates Shield" military action, which,  as Ankara claims, is  against "Islamic state", but within it more air strikes started towards the position of the Kurds.

Leaving Manbij , as well as sending considerable number of forces for an attack against Rakka does not stem from the Syrian Kurds' interests, while parallel to the Turkish assault on El-Bab some Kurdish forces are trying to approach the strategic important city from the eastern side. In these actions of the Kurds there is clear impact of the US, which support them. The US does not approve Turkey's actions against its ally in northern Syria - the Kurds, but doesn't want to have a serious confrontation with Turkey especially when the creation of a Kurdish state in northern Syria has no fundamental importance for the US and even it is quite  possible that Washington's statements were for pleasing the Kurds. At the same time it is not clear what policy administration of President-elect Donald Trump will adopt towards Syria and the Middle East.

The position of Russia, the main international actors in Syria, towards Turkey's actions is also quite interesting. After normalization of Russian-Turkish relations Moscow prefers to ignore Turkey's actions against the Kurds in Syria, as well as not to respond to their initiatives in Syria. Russia and Turkey obviously have at least a preliminary agreement on Syria, which is also evidenced by the active communication at intelligence, military, and diplomatic levels between the two countries. It should be noted, that Turkey's main issue in Syria is to prevent the formation of a Kurdish state. Russia is trying to keep its military base in Syria and influence in general. These goals of Moscow and Ankara in Syria can coexist with each other, but Erdogan's ambitions over Syria are still unclear - are they limited only with suppressing Syrian Kurds or Ankara still wants to overthrow Assad and appoint in Damascus an authority that will satisfy Ankara. In this case a serious clash of interests between Russia and Turkey is inevitable, which could have disastrous consequences.

In this context it should be noted that Russia has recently announced the start of military action in Syria. However, the action takes place not in Aleppo's eastern regions, as it was expected, but in Idlib. The latter is under rebel control who are sponsored by Turkey. This is certainly a signal to Turkey. Some analysts do not exclude that after the liberation of El-Bab Turkey  can form "alternative Syrian government" from the so-called moderate opposition members in the liberated areas in northern Syria. Taking into account the existing disagreements among the latter, it will be just a formality, but  their " request " for Ankara's military aid" will somehow "legitimize" Turkey's actions in Syria, allowing to begin more large-scale operations. So far Turkey's land operations are mainly carried out near the Turkish-Syrian border. However, for more far-reaching goals Turkey should deploy troops in Syria, which Turkey can't present as anti-terrorist operation.