Aris Georgopoulos: Increased Parliamentary Majority for the Conservatives Should Not Be Understood as an Affirmation of Hard Brexit (EXCLUSIVE)

• 04.21.2017, 16:17
•  Europe,  World,  Interview

 

"Armedia" IAA presents an exclusive interview with a Lecturer in European and Public Law at the School of Law of the University of Nottingham, Dr Aris Georgopoulos on the upcoming snap elections in the UK. He is also member of the Athens Bar, registered at the Athens Court of Appeal and Head of the Research Unit for Strategic and Defence Procurement of the Public Procurement Research Group (PPRG). 

- In 2015 general elections of the UK, the supporters of Brexit won. Why the Prime Minister May again wants to get the opinion of the people on the issue, declaring snap elections?

- I think the main reason is for the Government to strengthen its Parliamentary majority. I guess the political calculation is that the timing is auspicious for increasing the majority, because the main opposition – the Labour party seems not to be in the best shape and also the fact that at the moment although the process of withdrawal has begun, the actual negotiations have not started. Therefore, the anticipated negative consequences of Brexit have not materialized yet.

 

-  Do you consider it possible that the voiced consequences of Brexit would have changed the opinion of the UK people?

-  The thing is that we have not had Brexit yet. We have a decision to leave, but we haven’t actually left.  This means that the consequences have not materialized yet, apart from the fact that immediately after the referendum we saw a sharp fall of the value of pound, which was reflected in various prices. There is also instability and uncertainty for businesses, particularly for those who were considering investing in Britain, but we haven’t seen yet the consequences of Brexit because we are still in the EU.

 

-  Yes, there are still no material consequences, but many politicians, experts talk about the risks of Brexit. Couldn’t this have had an influence on the opinion of the people?

-  It is too early to say. For those that have been firmly for Brexit, I do not think there have been enough consequences yet for them to change their minds. Of course, we have those, who decided to vote for Brexit on the day of the referendum, likewise there were those, who at the last moment decided to vote to remain. So it is this middle ground, which will be interesting to see how will react at this point. From the point of view of the ‘convinced’ remain supporters there are proposals for strategic voting, namely to vote for candidates -irrespective of individual Parties- that support(ed) "remain" or are against a "disorderly Brexit". In other words, for them it is important that the emerging political geography of the next Parliament is against a "hard Brexit".

 

-  Can we assume that as a result of the snap elections the majority of the Parliament will again be for Brexit?

-  It is difficult to say. On the one hand the Government, the Prime Minister in particular, puts forward the idea "those of you, who want Brexit, who want the results of the referendum to be respected, vote for me". On the other hand, a lot of Conservative MPs that supported remain and are against a hard Brexit will be reelected.

At the moment we really do not know what the strategy of the Government is regarding Brexit. There are messages, which suggest that hard Brexit is a possibility but there are also other messages that suggest that this is nothing more than rhetoric. The negotiations have not started and we haven’t seen the Government’s strategy yet.

In other words an increased Parliamentary majority for the Conservatives should not be understood as an affirmation of hard Brexit.