Will Iraqi Kurdistan Declare Independence?

• 09.27.2017, 12:13
•  Near East,  World

РИА Новости / Дмитрий Виноградов

More than 93 percent of the participants of the Iraqi Kurdistan Independence Referendum supported the region's independence, with only 6.71 percent of against votes. These are only the preliminary results, while the final ones will be announced on September 28. However, like before the referendum, there is no doubt that the region would vote for independence. According to the recent data, about 3.3 million people took part in the referendum, and the participation was 72.16%. Moreover, Kirkuk, Naynavan, Salah Ad-Deni regions that are not officially part of the autonomous region, as well as the Kurds living outside Iraq (via online voting) participated in the referendum.

Baghdad has already announced that it is not going to start negotiations with the Kurdish authorities as a result of the referendum. Earlier, the Iraqi parliament voted for the decision to dismiss Kurdish officials who supported the referendum. The parliament also demanded from the government to enter troops in the above-mentioned three disputed regions. It should be mentioned that the oil-rich Kirkuk has a special importance for Iraq. It is not officially a part of Iraqi Kurdistan, but this region, mainly inhabited by Kurds, is controlled by Kurdish military detachments - peshmerga. Still in the end of August Kirkuk's council voted to join the Iraqi Kurdistan after its independence. In this regard, Baghdad demanded the governor's resignation, but the provincial council rejected this requirement of the central government. Thus, in the case of Iraqi Kurdistan independence, the risk of losing oil-rich Kirkuk is more than possible for Baghdad.

However, it should be noted that the referendum is not enough to declare the region independent from Baghdad. That process can last for decades. The Prime Minister of the autonomous region Nichirvan Barzani said that Erbil is not going to declare independence from Baghdad right after the referendum is over. "We will not declare independence as soon as the referendum is over. We have been a factor of stability for decades and will stay the same," Rudaw quotes him.

At this moment the statement of Erbil on separation from Baghdad can really cause chaos in the region. Not only Baghdad, but also its regional neighbors have a negative attitude towards the Kurdish referendum. Iran and Turkey have already begun military exercises on the border with the autonomous region. Erdogan even hinted that one day Turkish troops might appear in the territory of Kurdistan. It should not be ruled out that this threat of Erdogan can become a reality, taking into account the attitude of the latter to the idea of ​​establishing an independent Kurdish state.

In addition to military threats, in case of becoming an independent state the Iraqi Kurdistan can be confronted with serious economic problems. Thus, Ankara has already declared about economic sanctions and, in particular, about the possibility of halting oil exports from the autonomous region. Neighboring Iran has also announced the closure of the border with Kurdistan and the cessation of air communication. Undoubtedly, Baghdad will also impose economic sanctions on a Kurdish independent state. And all this will happen with a full support of the international community - no country has officially supported the Kurdish referendum except Israel and is not going to recognize the legitimacy of its results.

As a result, the newly independent Kurdish state may face serious problems that it is not likely to be able to overcome. Erbil understood all this clearly. They understood it also the time when declaring about the referendum. So, now holding independence referendum had some other goals at least for the near future. Thus, Iraqi Kurdistan regularly protests against its disproportionate representation in the central government and the violation of Kurds' rights by Baghdad. Having the results of the expression of the will of the autonomous region’s people, not in favor of Baghdad, the Kurdish authorities can now more effectively negotiate with Baghdad on these issues. In addition, Erbil hopes that the referendum results will make Baghdad look at the issue of expanding the autonomy of Iraqi Kurdistan and gaining a larger share of the oil revenues, about which Erbil periodically voices.