Iran's Nuclear Deal: What Can Trump's Destructive Policy Lead to?

• 04.11.2018, 22:48
•  America,  Region,  Near East,  World

lebanese-forces.com

Discussions on Iran's nuclear deal do not stop. US President Donald Trump continues to insist on introduction of amendments to the deal and threatens that if the European partners do not agree with the proposed changes by May 12, the US will withdraw from the nuclear agreement with Iran.  This threat of Trump is quite real. The cancellation of the Iran nuclear deal is one of Trump's pre-election promises, and, as we know, the US President is quite consistent in fulfilling his promises.

However, as it is seen from the statements of European officials, the EU is not going to put ultimatum to Trump and make changes in the deal. Due to the abolition of sanctions against Tehran as a result of Iran's nuclear deal, trade relations between Iran and European countries have made substantial progress and Europe, which has economic difficulties, will hardly refuse from these developing links. Perhaps the only thing that can force the EU to comply with Trump's requirements is that the United States impose economic sanctions on the EU: the volume of EU economic relations with the United States is simply incomparable with the volume of its cooperation with Iran. Although Trump does not speak of the possibility of imposing sanctions on allies yet, but his administration has already applied some trade restrictions to EU countries. If the United States agrees with the change in the deal due to economic pressure, it will result in the failure of the deal and the incomparably increased Iran's nuclear activity. However, it should be noted that the probability that if the United States withdraws from the deal unilaterally, it will not fail, is not bigger.

After the United States has resumed sanctions against Iran, the expediency of Iran may be a serious challenge for Iran, especially in the case of Iran's opponents. The expediency of the deal can be seriously questioned for Iran, especially that there are many opponents of the deal in Iran also.

The third possible scenario of the future of Iran's nuclear deal is that the United States agrees to negotiate with the EU on issues of Trump’s concern - the Iranian ballistic program, Tehran's regional policy, not involving them in the deal. European countries agree with this option and it is a golden average for the US authorities: The major part of the American political elite, even those who have opposed the deal, clearly realize that its cancellation will result in a reduction of the US world role, if not isolated, as Iran fulfills its commitments to the deal and it fully satisfies other parties to the deal - Russia, China, Germany, France, the UK and the EU.  But President Trump hardly will agree with this option.

These developments around the Iranian nuclear deal are quite interesting in the context of the issue of denuclearization of the Korean peninsula. Although North Korea has announced its readiness for nuclear disarmament, developments around Iran's nuclear dealing may have a destructive effect on the outcome of the dialogue with North Korea.