It Is in the Interests of Iran to Neighbor Republic of Artsakh and Armenia Rather Than Azerbaijan

• 08.20.2015, 20:30
•  Region,  World,  NKR,  Interview

“Armedia” IAA presents an EXCLUSIVE interview with expert in Iranian affairs Vardan Voskanyan

- Iran and the Six finally managed to reach an agreement. What do you think how the agreement will affect power politics in the region? 

- For the realization of the agreement a number of obstacles still need to be overcome.  One of those obstacles is the ratification of the agreement by the US Congress, particularly by the right wing forces, who are against the agreement. Besides, there is also State of Israel, which has powerful lobbing.

However, if we consider only positive scenario and assume that the agreement will be realized then new political and economic opportunities will open for Iran, which will certainly result in the some transformations in the region.

In this context the possibility of the emergence of a  stronger pro-Iranian coalition should be underlined. It is not a secret that Iran gives certain assistance both to the regime in Syria and to other Shia groups in the region. Naturally enough after the economic abilities of Iran grow; the volume of assistance will also grow.

On the other hand if we turn to the opposite camp then we are to face certain concerns. Particularly it refers to Saudi Arabia and State of Israel who are rivals of Iran in the Middle East. The same also refers to Turkey as long as there are many contradicting issues in the relations of the two countries such as the resolution of the Syrian conflict. Consequently, the possibility is high that paradoxical coalitions can be formed in the region such as relation between Israel and Saudi Arabia, about which however will not be declared openly.

If we consider the case of another country in the region, Azerbaijan, then we  are to state that Azerbaijan can have either essential losses or on the contrary derive certain dividends. It is not  a secret either that Azerbaijan is in the opposite camp with Iran and is engaged in the anti-Iranian  propaganda and why not  real actions under the auspices of the US and Israel. From this perspective in the present situation Azerbaijan will lose its importance for the US.

For Israel, the role of Azerbaijan will on the contrary increase as long as Azerbaijan can become  part of Israel-Saudi Arabia possible coalition. This will naturally escalate relations between Iran and Azerbaijan.

In this context it should also be noted that although at present Azerbaijan tries to derive all possible dividends for itself, if we comment on the reaction of the Azerbaijani officials to the agreement on Iran nuclear deal we are to state  that it was rather cold one as compared to that of other countries.

- What role will free from sanctions Iran have in the settlement of Karabakh conflict?

- I think it is wrong to expect essential change in the stance of Iran on the issue. Iran has not once declared that they are for the peaceful resolution of the conflict. Although Iran declares about its recognition of Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity, it is pure rhetoric.

It is not a secret that in the context of existing problematic issues in the relations between Iran and Azerbaijan, status quo is in the interest of Iran. It is natural for Iran to prefer  to share its  northern border with Republic of Artsakh and Armenia rather that with Azerbaijan, from where the so-called Turkic speaking people of  Atrpatakan conduct various provocations because of their ambitions.

Naturally enough under this circumstances  Iran considers Azerbaijan as one of the threats to its territorial integrity. Thus although the rhetoric of Iran in Karabakh conflict will remain the same, its policies and steps will probably be pro-Armenian.