While Intensifying the Tension on the Borders Aliyev Should Remember the History of his Country

• 12.11.2015, 09:50
•  Region,  "Insight" Analytical Center

The director of Institute "Peace and Democracy" Leyla Yunus has been released from prison. The 60-year-old human rights activist has serious health problems – she suffers from diabetes, hepatitis C and has visual problems.

It is obvious that Baku’s this step has two reasons: the first one is Azerbaijan’s efforts to prevent international scandal, which would be unavoidable, if her health condition deteriorated in the prison. The second reason for releasing Leyla Yunus from prison is the internal developments of Azerbaijan. The situation in Nardaran and the steps of the Azerbaijani authorities to suppress possible riots, suggest that new wave of repressions are being expected.

The Azerbaijani Parliament has already restricted the law on organizing rallies and protests in the country by increasing the amount of penalty in case of violations. Taking into consideration the existing wave of discontent, as well as the predictions of several international institutions (for example Bank of America) on the devaluation of manat, we can assume that the next wave of social unrest is expected in the near future.

Of course, it will be accompanied by mass arrests and gross violations of human rights. In that context keeping the old and ill human rights activist in the prison would put Azerbaijan’s thesis – "the limitation of citizen’s rights derive from the need to ensure security" – under question in the eyes of the international community.

Azerbaijan’s domestic problems would not be of any interest for us, if they were not directly connected with the current situation on Armenia-Azerbaijan and NKR-Azerbaijan borders. Unfortunately, among the "measures" to make its people obedient, Aliyev uses most extreme tools. As we already know, an Armenian soldier near NKR border was killed from tank shooting. It is clear that the Armenian side will not leave this unanswered. It is also clear that the new failures in the battlefield are becoming a powerful impetus for a new wave of public discontent in Azerbaijan. It's hard to believe that in such a situation the more educated segment of the society will not understand the real abilities of their opponent. It is surprising that Aliyev has not learned lesson from his own country's recent history. The Karabakh war destroyed some of the leaders of Azerbaijan – does Aliyev's son want to repeat their fate?