Over a Week after EU-British Reforms Deal...

• 02.29.2016, 21:33
•  Europe,  World

Reuters

More than a week has passed after the EU-British reforms deal was reached in Brussels between the EU leaders and the UK Prime Minister David Cameron. However, if the British public votes to leave the European Union in June referendum, then the reform package falls into the dustbin of history. Since last September, polls have shown a slight majority of U.K. citizens back remaining in the EU. But polls held after the deal show that the picture has now changed a lot. The poll released by Ipsos MORI last week, in particular, found 51 percent of Britons support staying, while 36 percent support leaving.

The research suggests younger people are more likely to vote to remain in the EU, while older voters tend to favour out and in general, older people are more likely to vote in elections than younger people. The "don't knows" are also running at between 17% and 20%. In its turn, the YouGov have also found that euroskepticism correlates with people of lower income and support for the Conservatives. Besides, big business is broadly behind remaining in the EU, though the situation among smaller companies is less clear cut.

However, Brexit might break up both the Union and the United Kingdom itself. Scotland, more Europhile than England, will again agitate for a ''divorce''; it could also dangerously unsettle Northern Ireland, where the peace process over two decades has depended on the fact that both Ireland and Britain are members of the EU. The Irish government is among the most vocal foreign supporters of the campaign for Britain to stay in.

And Europe in turn would be poorer without Britain’s voice: more dominated by Germany; and, surely, less liberal, more protectionist and more inward-looking. The loss of its biggest military power and most significant foreign-policy actor would seriously weaken the EU in the world. Besides, Europe’s links to America would become more tenuous. In this context, The New York Times published an editorial entitled: "Everyone Loses if Britain Exits the E.U." The editorial board opined that British withdrawal "would be a tragedy for Britain, other European nations, and for a world that needs a united and prosperous Europe.

It should be recalled that President Barack Obama himself in an interview with BBC News in July 2015, confirmed the longstanding US preference for the UK to remain in the EU. Obama said: "Having the UK in the EU gives us much greater confidence about the strength of the transatlantic union, and is part of the cornerstone of the institutions built after the Second World War that has made the world safer and more prosperous. We want to make sure that the United Kingdom continues to have that influence."

Also in October 2015, the United States Ambassador to the United Kingdom Matthew Barzun said that UK participation in NATO and the EU made each group "better and stronger" and that, while the decision to remain or leave is choice for the British people, it is in the US interest that it remain. Barzun said: "We would love a strong UK in a strong EU."

The Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund, Christine Lagarde, following the above-mentioned deal warned that the uncertainty over the outcome of the referendum would be bad "in and of itself" for the British economy. She added that leaving the EU was "bound to be negative on all fronts".

From a European perspective the deal was just ''alright''. It was not a game-changer or a super powerful agreement but ''it will do''. European leaders called on David Cameron to take back to his Conservatives as a means of settling intra-party tensions and thus, helping to ensure an In vote. It was always suggested that taming his own party would be key to winning the referendum.

And winning the referendum thus remaining in the Union is really seen as the best option for both sides otherwise the loses of two parties will be much bigger and higher than the gains if any at all.