Aliyev Faces a Difficult Choice

• 04.12.2016, 19:11
• Greta Avetisyan
•  "Insight" Analytical Center ,  NKR

azadliq.org

Azerbaijan, which unleashed four-day war on NKR-Azerbaijani border in fact could not satisfy its expectations. So what does Azerbaijan now have after the failed large-scale military operations?

First, using unprecedented military equipment, it managed to seize only 200-400 square meters territory. At the same time, the Azerbaijani side suffered hundreds of deaths and lost military equipment worth millions of dollars, very small number of which is voiced in Azerbaijan. The Azerbaijani authorities were also convinced that threatening the Armenian sides with war and explaining the bad social conditions of its own society by “We will bring Karabakh back” is not effective anymore.

Though the Azerbaijani authorities are trying to create an illusion of victory, even in the case of Azerbaijan with a closed system this will have a very short-term effect. The fact that Aliyev lied the society with stories about war, is already being voiced inside Azerbaijan. A vivid example of this is the Facebook post of the Head of the Azerbaijani Popular Front Party, Ali Kermeli, in which he questioned the combat readiness of the Azerbaijani Army, calling not to use such expressions as "If needed we will take Karabakh", noting that it is not taken seriously anymore.

It turns out that the Azerbaijani society constantly waiting for war and having great expectations from it (the number of these people given the so many years of policy of the Azerbaijani authorities, cannot be small) is disappointed today. This is evidenced by their posts and comments in social networks.

If we try to summarize the picture, it becomes obvious that in such circumstances it remains to Azerbaijan either to find new and more convincing arguments to calm down its society, to maintain control over them, or to resort to new military operations with direct support of Turkey, or to get used to the idea that the dissatisfaction in the country will increase, which can lead to many serious consequences.