Lukashenko's Visit to Ankara or "If You Want to Live, Learn to Twirl"

• 04.28.2016, 20:34
• Naira Mkrtchyan
•  EEU,  Region,  "Insight" Analytical Center ,  World,  Analytics

The official reason of the visit of President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko to Turkey was to participate in the summit of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), which took place on April 14-15 in Istanbul. However, here a question arises: is the Muslim factor in Belarus so strong, which would justify the participation of Lukashenko at the summit, moreover, as an honored guest? By the way, at this summit, Belarus received observer status.

It should be noted that, according to 2009 census, the number of Muslims in Belarus was about 22 thousand, about 0.25% of the total population. If one believes to the local Islamic preachers, this number is actually five times more, and still, even in this case, one can hardly call Belarus an Islamic state.

If the participation of the head of our partner country in the Eurasian Union - Kazakhstan - Nursultan Nazarbayev at a meeting of the OIC one can understand, the participation of another partner - Belarus - gives rise to many questions. The results of the negotiations showed that both countries are trying to get economic benefits from Ankara, offering their mediation services to return the latter to the Russian market. It should be recalled that Belarus has a similar experience of mediation - European goods enter Russia through the territory of Belarus, those goods that are under Russian sanctions.

It is known that Turkey has suffered enough from the Russian sanctions. First of all, it concerns the supply of food and tourist flows. If the territory of Belarus is used as a "buffer zone", it can provide Minsk with income of several hundred million dollars. In addition, it will be an indicator of Lukashenko’s political independence from Moscow, which will strengthen Lukashenko’s position in the West.

However, there is one "but." Lukashenko would hardly go to such a step without coordinating it with Moscow. Probably, he fulfilled his "homework" and came to the conclusion that very little time is left to Erdogan’s rule.

The current behavior of Lukashenko is nothing new. He always acted like this on sensitive issues for Russia: his friends are Mikheil Saakashvili, Viktor Yurchenko, Petro Poroshenko. Lukashenko says to Moscow that he is ready, "when necessary, to stand shoulder to shoulder with Russia," but at the same time is not going to link its own interests with Russia.

Minsk openly moved to the diversification of relations, taking lessons from Russia in difficult situations and not wanting to be more dependent on trade with Russia. Belarus intends to send only one-third of its products to the EAEU by 2020, one-third - to the European Union, and the remaining third to other countries, including to Turkey.

It is obvious that Lukashenko is trying to use the Russian-Turkish tension in his favor: to strengthen economic and trade relations with Turkey, expecting from the latter large-scale investments. Moreover, Lukashenko wants to play a role of a mediator in the Russian-Turkish conflict. He sees that it is profitable for the both sides to restore good relations: Kremlin does not need escalation of Karabakh conflict (which is backed by Turkey) and the constructive participation of Turkey is needed in the process of peaceful settlement of the Syrian conflict. In turn, Erdogan with the arrival of summer will try to return Russian tourists to the Turkish resorts and to restore relations with Moscow.

Lukashenko's intentions and his actions are completely logical, if we consider them as not actions of Putin's friend, but as the President of Belarus. Given the geopolitical situation and its desire to protect national interests, as well as the difficult economic situation of the country, it was difficult to expect from Belarus some other thing. Here a Russian popular expression comes in one’s mind "If you want to live, learn to twirl."