The Possibility of a New Blitzkrieg by the Azerbaijani Side

• 05.03.2016, 21:10
•  Region,  NKR

Contact.az

After the four-day war the tension on NKR-Azerbaijani border still remains tension. The fact that the Azerbaijani side failed to achieve even minimal results during its April blitzkrieg (for example, the seizure of some border regions) and suffered heavy losses, makes us believe that the official Baku has not yet completely abandoned its plan to solve the Karabakh problem by military means, and it just waits for the right moment to try a new blitzkrieg.

Moreover, in Armenia and NKR, many believe that the start of the April aggression was chosen not by chance, because it was on April 2 that Karvachar (Kelbajar) was liberated. Whether this is a coincidence or not, this version should at least not be excluded. It should also be noted  that the proponents of this version believe that on the background of continuing tensions around the perimeter of the border, there is a very high probability of a new blitzkrieg attempts by Azerbaijan in the coming days. The probable date of a new Azerbaijani aggression is May 8 or 9: it was on these days that Shushi was liberated, which became one of the key operations of the Karabakh war, and thanks to which the civilian population of many settlements of Karabakh, including the capital city Stepanakert, came out of their shelters and got rid of regular shelling.

However, only time can refute the likelihood of such scenarios. But it is important to note that the Armenian military leadership, who studied the behavior of the Azerbaijani side, has found out a clear pattern: on the eve of some international events and national holidays Azerbaijani side becomes more active, trying to implement various sabotage operations on its borders with Armenia and NKR. This principle is one of the basis of our defensive tactics on the so-called "risky days," when Armenian sides takes certain steps for increasing the vigilance across the borders, and preventing possible provocations by punitive operations.

Given the above, we can say that the beginning of the new fighting on the days of the liberation of Shushi is at least evidence of shortsightedness and recklessness of the Azerbaijani military and political leadership. But, as the experience shows, the Aliyev clan not always shows off with its bright mind…