Western Demarche Against Russia, Iran and Turkey in Astana

• 02.09.2017, 11:47
• Arpine Hovsepyan
•  Near East,  "Insight" Analytical Center ,  World,  Analytics

A few days ago negotiations on the Syrian settlement ended in Astana. The dialogue between the delegations of the Syrian government and opposition cannot be called a breakthrough, despite the efforts made by the mediating countries (Russia, Turkey, Iran) and the results presented by them. At the same time one cannot underestimate the importance of the process in terms of the effort to move towards a political settlement of the conflict.

From the very beginning it was clear that the process has not much chance to succeed. Partial participation or absence of some of the internal (Kurdish forces) and external forces (the US, European Union, Gulf states) involved in the conflict and the fact that their interests would not be presented in an appropriate way seriously reduced the possibility of coming to an agreement. The lack of clarity on the agenda of negotiations and disagreements between the intermediary countries further complicate the prospect of possible success.

The main failures of negotiations in Astana

First, Moscow, Ankara and Tehran at the planning stage of negotiations highlighted the fact that for the first time in 6 years of the conflict they will manage to organize direct talks between the Syrian government and the opposition. As a result, it was impossible to organize direct negotiations: talks were conducted with the help of mediators.

Second, it was expected that a final document would be signed and the Syrian delegations would join it. However, the mediating countries just released a joint tripartite declaration, announcing about establishing a monitoring mechanism for the ceasefire in Syria. 

Third, negotiating sides failed to form a road map or action plan to solve the conflict. They even were not able to move to the discussion of political issues and considered issues only referring to the observance of the truce.

At last, maybe, the most important, Russia, Turkey and Iran failed to confront the demarche of the West. Before negotiations in Geneva under the auspices of the UN, the US and the European Union, in fact, refused to take full participation in the negotiations in Astana (they were observers of the process). The Western demarche was a serious blow to the positions of Russia, Iran and Turkey in terms of legitimizing their initiative of the Syrian conflict settlement, because their full participation would mean "victory" of these three countries. 

The successes achieved in Astana 

When talking about the positive results of the Astana talks, one should highlight the fact that the negotiations were a step towards a political settlement. According to the Russian side, 10-15 representatives of the opposition groups took part in the negotiations, which itself is a positive step in terms of distinguishing the terrorists from the opposition in Syria as well as in terms of establishing a dialogue with the Syrian government.

Second, the talks between the Syrian government and the opposition as well as a monitoring mechanism for the ceasefire in Syria create a positive basis for further political process.

Russia, Turkey and Iran plan to continue negotiations in Astana 

It is already obvious that intermediaries, first, Russia, intend to continue negotiations in Astana or at least create a platform equal to Geneva. The Russian side will try to convince that this is the most sustainable format for negotiations, where both the Syrian sides and regional powers are represented.

There is no doubt that there are many disagreements between Russia, Iran and Turkey in Syria, but they have managed take the initiative of the Syrian settlement in their hands and they will not easily loss it. The main goal that unites them now is preventing the involvement of external forces (mainly the US) in the Syrian conflict and regional issues.

The possibility of Russian-American cooperation in Syria is not yet lost

The above mentioned does not yet mean that the possibility of Russian-American cooperation in Syria is lost forever. The US President does not exclude the possibility of joint fight with Russia against the "Islamic State". The Russian side, in his turn, does not exclude that the US may also become guarantor of truce in Syria, along with Russia, Iran, and Turkey.

Russia has significantly strengthened its position as a mediator and guarantor of ceasefire

Having strengthened its military presence in Syria, Russia now tries to take a similar role in the peace process. As a result of Astana talks, as well as separate meeting in Moscow, Russia has significantly strengthened its ties with the Syrian opposition and now tries to act as an impartial mediator and guarantor of ceasefire, providing its role in further processes. From this point of view it is not accidental that Russia presented its own draft of a new Constitution of Syria, trying to present it as a "huge step towards peace."