Forbes: Aliyev regime can’t afford war
The American financial-economic magazine Forbes has touched upon the frequent Azerbaijani aggression in the Artsakh line of contact and analyzed its causative link with Azerbaijan's declining economy, "ARMENPRESS" reports.
"On May 18, Azerbaijan drew the ire of the OSCE Minsk Group and the Russian Foreign Ministry when it broke the shaky ceasefire agreed to by the warring parties last year. These were rare condemnations by historically neutral organizations," Movses Ter-Oganesyan, author of the article says.
He mentions that by using an Israeli Spike missile, Azerbaijan destroyed an air-defense system of Artsakh's military.
The article says that this happened when Azerbaijan made numerous claims of violence by Artsakh.
"Azerbaijan made similar claims of increasing violence by its arch-foe after it devalued its national currency, the manat, by nearly half in 2015. The depreciation of the currency caused the average Azeri to lose nearly half of their life saving in two 2015 devaluations.
This crisis preceded the biggest flair up of violence along the Line of Contact (LoC) between NKR and Azerbaijan since the 1994 trilateral ceasefire agreement signed in Bishkek by Armenia, Nagorno-Karabakh and Azerbaijan," the Forbes article says.
"The same week that Azerbaijan the air-defense system, the International Bank of Azerbaijan (IBA) defaulted on a $100 million loan payment and filed for Chapter 15 bankruptcy in New York courts. This came as a shock to markets given that the IBA had reported a 24% increase in y/y operating income in the first quarter of 2017. With more payments due in June and October, Azerbaijani news is already forecasting the potential bankruptcy of the biggest bank in the country. To make matters worse, IBA has given a $2 billion loan to Azerbaijan state energy giant, State Oil Company of Azerbaijan Republic (SOCAR).
In December 2016 the Global Rating affirmed credit rating at with a negative outlook," Ter-Oganesyan writes.
"The downgrade of the credit ratings comes on the heels of decreased oil and gas production, a decline in country's construction sector, and increased inflation. As the country battles a serious case of the Dutch Disease, the ruling Aliyev clan dependent on oil revenues to maintain power - has much reason to attempt to pacify its domestic population by rallying them around the flag. The massive Azerbaijani aggression in last April's war came on the eve of the release of the Panama Papers, which implicated Azerbaijan's first family in massive fraud and nepotism involving off-shore bank accounts.
With a 10-fold increase in defense spending over the past decade, Baku has acquired offensive weaponry from Turkey, Israel and Russia. Azerbaijan certainly has the impetus to find out what its military hardware is capable of. This necessity, coupled with a potential economic meltdown of the nation's economy, provides the perfect opportunity for increased violence along the LoC. The recent deployment and withdrawal of 10 tanks near the village of Talish is an example of a ruse de guerre by Baku meant to desensitize the Armenian troops in the area. The Azerbaijani military is certainly testing the waters.
The Aliyev regime cannot afford to fight a long-term war where its oil infrastructure may come under threat, therefore it would aim for a restricted show of force in limited clashes as witnessed last year."
Other materials on this subject
- Russian forces have clearly failed in their duties: senators press Biden Administration to break Azerbaijan’s blockade The United States cannot stand aside while the Aliyev regime callously threatens the lives of Nagorno-Karabakh’s citizens, and must hold Azerbaijan to account for blocking a civilian population’s access...
- US calls for the full restoration of free movement through the Lachin Corridor "We remain concerned about impeded access to the Lachin Corridor and the humanitarian implications of this situation. This sets back the peace process and undermines international confidence. We call for...
- Azerbaijani forces violate the ceasefire in Artsakh The ceasefire violation was reported to the command of the Russian peacekeeping troops.
- Azerbaijani units violate ceasefire in several directions, Artsakh’s Defense Ministry says The Armenian side has no losses. The incidents of ceasefire violations were reported to the command of the Russian peacekeeping troops.
- Russian Diplomat Reassures Armenians Over Corridor In Karabakh "The parties are in direct contact, and I assure you that the peacekeepers will not move a single centimeter until there is a new corridor," Seleznyov said.
-
17:08
The regular session of the Anti-corruption Policy Council takes place in Jermuk
-
15:05
The Prime Minister sends congratulatory messages to the supreme leader of Iran and the President of Iran
-
11:11
Armenia sends earthquake aid to Turkey
-
10:43
Commemoration of the Pontiff St. Sahak Partev
-
09:16
Some roads are closed and difficult to pass in Armenia
-
19:55
Phone conversation of the Foreign Minister of Armenia with the U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs
-
18:30
Prime Minister Pashinyan and President Khachaturyan meet
-
18:20
Ararat Mirzoyan with Co-Chairman of the OSCE Minsk Group of France Brice Roquefeuil
-
17:01
Humans could land on Mars within 10 years, Musk predicts
-
16:45
France, US urge 'immediate' end to Nagorno Karabakh blockade
-
16:01
Blockaded Nagorno Karabakh launches fundraiser to support quake-hit Syria
-
15:59
Earthquake death toll in Turkey rises to 18,342
-
15:43
Ararat Mirzoyan Held a Telephone Conversation with Sergey Lavrov
-
15:06
French president rules out fighter jet supplies to Ukraine in near future
-
14:47
5 Day Weather Forecast in Armenia
-
14:44
President Vahagn Khachaturyan wrote a note in the book of condolences opened in the Embassy of Syria in Armenia
-
14:20
Azerbaijan’s provocations impede establishment of peace and stability – Armenian FM tells Russian Co-Chair of OSCE MG
-
12:57
France representation to OSCE: Paris calls on Azerbaijan to restore freedom of movement through Lachin corridor
-
11:40
Command of Kosovo forces highly appreciated preparation of Armenian peacekeepers
-
10:16
The United States withdrew from sanctions against Syria for six months the provision of assistance after the earthquake
day
week
month
Humidity: 66%
Wind: 0 km/h