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Aliyev's Calculations Justified Themselves

For another seven years the President of Azerbaijan will be Ilham Aliyev. In the snap presidential elections Aliyev succeeded in receiving 86% of the votes and this is quite serious indicator. What is such result conditioned by?  

To those people, who are not familiar with the policy pursued by the Azerbaijani authorities and to the situation in that country, it might have seemed that Aliyev enjoys a broad popularity in his country. Evidence to this could have been the results of the survey conducted several days before the elections, according to which 86.3% of the respondents said they would vote for Ilham Aliyev. However, it is clear to almost everyone, including the international community, that the reason for such results in the elections is the consistent work and the right calculation of Aliyev.

First, during the years of Aliyev's rule, the country lived in a closed system, where free speech was punished, where the society was constantly subjected to repressions and lived in the atmosphere of fear. Under very strict control, it is difficult to imagine that the Azerbaijani society would go against Aliyev's clan and his interests.

Second, by appointing snap presidential elections, Aliyev insured such results in the elections. By bringing the time closer, Aliyev limited the opportunities of the marginalized opposition to consolidate and become a solid force, and on the other hand, taking into account the rich agenda of the West-Russia, Azerbaijan succeeded in avoiding Western criticism regarding the developments around the elections.

In the presence of such conditions, it was not surprising that during the elections day the observers recorded quite few electoral frauds, and the evaluations on the process were mostly positive. It is noteworthy that the Azerbaijani authorities themselves surpassed themselves, when "staging" the elections. No complaint has been filed to the court on violations. Such a phenomenon is hardly witnessed even in the most democratic countries.

Thus, it can be stated that untill now Aliev's policy has "justified" itself and so far the country's society, despite the difficult socio-economic conditions and the unhealthy atmosphere in the country, is not ready to resist the Aliev clan.


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