Is Estonia the Next After Ukraine?

• 02.26.2015, 15:06
•  Europe,  America,  World

This week "by chance" both Russia and NATO have decided to organize rival exercises at two sides of the Estonian border.  According to the information presented by the Telegraph the armored personnel of the West, which included carriers, tanks and 1,300 Estonian soldiers, was holding a military parade in Estonian frontier town of Narva, which is known for its  large  number of ethnic Russian residents. Hundreds of troops from Britain and other European nations were also participating in parade. The response of Russia to this military parade organized by NATO did not come late: Kremlin sent 2,000 paratroopers into Russia’s western Pskov region: bordering both Estonia and neighboring Latvia.

The organization of such kind of military parade in Estonia seems to be the direct continuation of the announcement made by the Prime Minister of Great Britain, David Cameron, according to which Britain is going to deploy military personnel to Ukraine next month to help train the Ukrainian army; the announcement which became a topic of hot debates in Britain. In his announcement David Cameron warned against Baltic’s being next Crimea-style annexation for Russia. In this context the choice of the place for the NATO organized parade – Navra - town with majority of ethnic Russian population, seems to be done on purpose to warn Russia not to perceive the Russian populated parts of Estonia to be its "backyard".

In spite of all the facts that seem to contribute to the assumption that Estonia is going to be next country of competition between the West and Russia after Ukraine, one should take into consideration "a small detail" while making comparisons between Estonia and Ukraine – unlike Ukraine, Estonia is a member of NATO.  An Article of the NATO founding document, which is otherwise referred to as "one-for-all and all-for-one" article, is considered to be the keystone of North Atlantic Union. The article reads as follows: "The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defense recognized by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area."

To put it simpler, if the NATO members remain loyal to the founding agreement of the Atlantic Union, any attack against Estonia is to turn into military conflict between Russia and NATO. A scenario which seems to be of low possibility if one takes into consideration the absence of willingness of both sides to engage in such kind of real military confrontation, a position, which was more than obvious in many high-level official statements made by the representatives of both sides. Otherwise the West would not be so indifferent to the calls of the Ukrainian officials for their country to become a NATO member and Ukraine should have long been a NATO member.