The Situation in NKR: Who Started the First?

The first large-scale resumption of military actions since the conclusion of a trilateral agreement on ceasefire between Armenia, Azerbaijan and Karabakh in 1994 continues. Calling it as usual "violation of truce" is not relevant anymore. Despite the fact that many avoid using the term "war", in other words it is impossible to fully describe the situation. In the zone of conflict military air forces, all kinds of artillery and armored vehicles are being used, civilian settlements are under fire, women and the elderly are being killed. For a large-scale war – according to international definition of this word - the use of long-range missiles is only left.
At the same time it should be noted that the war is between the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic and Azerbaijan, and official Yerevan has not yet intervened into the developments. At the same time there is a large flow of Karabakh war veterans, voluntarily going to the front in Karabakh (according to the latest data, the number already exceeds 4 thousand).
The first Deputy Defense Minister of Armenia David Tonoyan during a meeting with military attaches of diplomatic missions of foreign countries in Armenia noted that the Armenian side is ready for any development of events, if necessary even to give direct military support to NKR. Moreover, the President of Armenia Serzh Sargsyan on April 2 during the meeting of the National Security Council ordered to prepare an agreement on mutual military assistance between Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, which on the one hand will raise the bilateral relations to a new level, on the other hand will even more legalize the basis for giving military assistance to NKR.
Following this unpredictable escalation, especially from the outside, the question "who started first?"is quite interesting. The fact that recently violations of the ceasefire on NKR-Azerbaijani and Armenia-Azerbaijani borders have become quite frequent, is not something new and no matter how strange it may sound, they have become quite common. For these violations the sides blame each other. However, this time, as already mentioned, we are dealing with a different situation, and in order to point out the ventures, that provoked a new war, one should deeply look at some factors and motives of the parties.
Armenia, being a party to the negotiations on the settlement of the conflict and feeling the effects of the Azerbaijani-Turkish blockade on its own economy is more than interested in the peaceful settlement of the Karabakh problem. The resumption of military actions, given their cost and unpredictability, is not in the interests of Armenia. Even the relative peace in Karabakh for Armenia is preferable to any military action.
The possibility of resumption of full-scale war by the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, too, does not seem to be plausible, given the limited resources and the prospect of immediate physical danger of its own citizens. In addition, Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, despite non-recognition and Azerbaijani blockade, develops quite effectively and to jeopardize this development without a guarantee of success is illogical.
The decision of Baku to resume large-scale military actions is simultaneously conditioned by several factors. The motives of Azerbaijan are quite diverse. Let’s refer to some of them:
-
11:02
Armenia Records 172216 Confirmed Coronavirus Cases
-
11:01
President Sarkissian Calls for Tolerance and Solidarity
-
10:06
The Process of "Determination" of the Borders with Azerbaijan Contradicts the Principles of International Law. Ombudsman
-
14:19
Artsakh MFA: The Sumgait Massacre Marked The Beginning Of A Whole Series Of Crimes Against Humanity
-
10:20
About 480 Trucks Accumulated On The Russian Side Of The Larsi
-
09:34
Sunday of the Lost (Prodigal) Sun
-
21:29
Press Conference of Ilham Aliyev Was Another Manifestation of Hate Speech towards the Armenian People: Armenia's MFA
-
19:58
Draft Decree on Resignation of the Chief of the General Staff Sent to the President Again
-
18:14
Armenia’s President Doesn't Sign PM’s Draft Decree to Release Chief of Armenian Armed Forces Onik Gasparyan, Returns With Objections
-
18:12
Armenian, Russian Defense Ministers Hold Phone Talk
-
15:38
Unlawful Attacks on Medical Facilities and Personnel in Karabakh: Human Rights Watch
-
13:11
Armenia President, Ombudsman Meet, Discuss Issue of Return of Captives
-
12:28
Statement by the Foreign Ministry of Armenia on the 33rd Anniversary of the Anti-Armenian Massacres in Sumgait
-
11:20
Armenia Records 171793 Confirmed Coronavirus Cases
-
10:47
Aram I: Armenia Is On Edge of Abyss
-
20:33
5 Day Weather Forecast in Armenia
-
19:03
Armen Sarkissian Met with Vazgen Manukyan, Arthur Vanetsyan, Vahram Baghdasaryan, and Artsvik Minasyan
-
19:03
Murders of Armenian Civilians in Hadrut Described as War Crimes by UN High Commissioner for Human Rights – Armenia’s MFA
-
18:41
Armenia's President Visits Chief of General Staff of Armed Forces Onik Gasparyan
-
18:28
Armen Sarkissian Met with the Leaders of the NA "My Step", "Bright Armenia" Factions and the Secretary of the "Prosperous Armenia" Faction
day
week
month
-
11:18
4 More Bodies of Fallen Servicemen Found During Search Operations, Artsakh Authorities Say
-
12:13
Artsakh: Search Օperation not to Be Conducted Today Due to Weather Conditions
-
14:50
3,577 Bodies Passed Forensic Examination, DNA Analysis of Other 428 in Process
-
18:35
Russia to Resume Air Service with Azerbaijan, Armenia Starting February 15
-
12:20
US Troop Withdrawal from Germany ‘Put on Freeze’
-
18:56
Garegin Nzhdeh Statue not Demolished in Martuni Town of Artsakh
-
20:06
Turkish State Channel Showed a Map of Expanding Influence on Armenia, Georgia and a Number of Territories of Russia
-
18:10
Air Temperature to Rise in Armenia by 5-6 Degrees
-
17:08
Joe Biden Has First Conversation with Xi Jinping as US President
-
14:04
No Bodies Found During Search Operations on Thursday, Artsakh Authorities Say
Humidity: 77%
Wind: 4 km/h