Azerbaijani Failed Blitzkrieg: Reasons and Expectations

• 04.13.2016, 13:01
• Greta Avetisyan
•  "Insight" Analytical Center ,  NKR,  Analytics

The recent failed military operations or blitzkrieg of Azerbaijan against NKR can be described as four-day war. Both the types of used military equipment and their number, the analysis of the strategy of the Azerbaijani attack, as well as the number of the armed forces used prove that the operations were very well planned.

This is proved also by the fact that the military operations started the time, when the RA President’s plane took off from the USA and for some period it was not possible to have full access to phone.

Azerbaijan has many times threatened with military operations, but its steps were mainly limited by several shots from various caliber firearms, mortars, as well as by resorting to sabotages.

First, the decrease of oil prices and the difficult social-economic situation led to protests in Azerbaijan, which with its territorial scope and frequency was quite unprecedented for a country which has a close system and constantly suppresses its own people. Besides, he did not have any guarantee that the "Panama Papers" scandalous revelations about his family's wealth (the publication date was previously announced), would not become the last drop of patience. In such a situation with traditional increase of tension on the borders would not be possible to distract the public's attention, so he chose the most scandalous option - large-scale military operations.

Second, in the presence of Russia-West tension, Azerbaijan was considered as alternative energy producer and transit route, "due to" which a lot was being forgiven to Azerbaijan. After the lifting of International sanctions imposed on Iran, both in regard with energy and the rise of its role in the region (on the background of Iran-Turkey competition), Azerbaijan appeared in quite a "uneasy" situation. It became obvious that all the concessions that previously was possible to get, now become impossible.

Third, during the recent period, the Azerbaijani authorities with the highest levels were very often expressing their dissatisfaction from the work of the OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs, accusing them in being biased and even hindering the settlement process. This was done with the aim of changing the mediation format. By starting military operations, Azerbaijan tried to show, that the activities of the Co-Chairs do not serve their aim, thus trying to justify its demand for changing the format.  

What were the expectations of Azerbaijan from these large-scale operations? Hardly the aim of starting operations with such military equipment was taking 200-400 square meters land. Azerbaijan has long promised its society that it will "liberate their historical lands" and such preparation for operations speaks about this. How much Azerbaijan succeeded in satisfying its wishes and in making a present to its people, all of us witnessed. Now the Azerbaijani authorities should invent new tales to dispel people’s anger.