The "Green Light" of the International Community to Azerbaijan

• 04.15.2016, 09:14
• Liana Hovhannisyan
•  "Insight" Analytical Center ,  World,  NKR

www.osce.org

The argument that the four-day war in the Karabakh-Azerbaijani borders in the beginning of April is a direct consequence of the indifference of the international community can be easily proved, if we try to remember and chronologically classify the recent statements of the Azerbaijani president and the main thesis used in them. Based on the analysis  on can think that  president of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev,  tried to measure the patience of the international community, firstly of the Minsk-Group Co-Chairs, to see how far Azerbaijan can go.

In parallel with increasing the country’s military budget the head of Azerbaijan also intensified his war rhetoric making direct threats first to the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, then to the Republic of Armenia. Afterwards it was the turn of Minsk Group Co-Chairs, when Azerbaijan tried to discredit their efforts in the process of the conflict resolution made so far. The Azerbaijani side did not only limited itself to threats, but turned to concrete steps. Among them one can identify Azerbaijani attempts to provoke aggression on the borders, to take out the negotiations from Minsk Group format and its refusal to accept the suggestions aimed at strengthening the trust between the two nations.   

Of course one can go even back in the time to find direct threats against the Armenian sides in the statements made by the Azerbaijani president. However, to demonstrate the dynamics of the intensified war rhetoric, we can conditionally take the end of July and the beginning of August of 2014. At that time President of Azerbaijan, once more violating one of the main components of the Helsinki Final Act, refraining from the threat or use of force, provoked aggression on the borders. This resulted in the days of continuing escalation on the borders and took human lives.

As a proof to the aggression provoked by Azerbaijan, on August 7 Ilham Aliyev made more than 60 posts on his Twitter page directly declaring war to the Armenian sides and threatening to wave the Azerbaijani flag in the town of Shushi in NKR. Aliyev’s twitter posts had wide reaction in the international media and became circulated by such top ranking media agencies as the Independent, the Guardian, Al Jazeera and so on (they defined it as something unprecedented, when  a president of a country declares a war on his social page). In spite of this there was no addressed statement by the international community, including by the Minsk Group Co-Chairs.

Already on February 7, 2015 during the panel discussion "Beyond Ukraine - Unresolved Conflicts in Europe"  in the framework Munich Security Conference, the indifference of the international community allowed Azerbaijani president to go even further in his war rhetoric. On this international platform he openly accepted the aggression committed by Azerbaijan against the Armenian forces. In his speech Aliyev particularly noted: “What have Armenian soldiers forgotten in Agdam? If he does not want to be killed, then he shouldn't go to Agdam. Let him stay in his Yerevan, Gyumri, in his own country.”  

Inspired by the fact that he can openly admit the aggression committed by them on the international platform and the international community can close eyes on it, in his speech on the occasion of  Nowruz on March 20, Aliyev  decided this time to address its threats to the UN and CSTO member state, Republic of Armenia, promising not only to take “occupied territories” but to reach to the “historical Azerbaijani lands Yerevan, Sevan, Zangezur.” In his speech he particularly noted:

 “Armenian-Azerbaijan, Nagorno-Karabakh conflict should be resolved only in accordance with the principle of territorial integrity, as accepted by the international community. After it we, the Azerbaijanis, of course, will return our ancient lands, Yerevan, Geychay and Zangezur.”

Even this threat was neglected. It was the turn of the Co-Chairs. On January 29 of this year during the meeting with the Azerbaijani youth, president of Azerbaijan blamed the Minsk Group in inaction and labeled their present efforts as “absolutely senseless.” Aliyev went even further trying to attach religious nature to the conflict and explained the so called “double standards” of the Minsk Group against Azerbaijan by their being a Muslim country.

In his speech addressed to the Co-Chairs Aliyev even accused them in the failed Walter resolution of PACE, trying to mock and discredit them by the following questions:

 “Who they think they are? Does it mean that they are going to make  a  pressure on all the international organizations? Are they going to give instructions to all the international organizations?”

In addition to such statements and defiant questions addressed to the Minsk Group Co-Chairs, Azerbaijan continued to demonstrate non-constructive stance around the negotiation table. This became even obvious when Azerbaijan refused the suggestion made by the Minsk Group to install investigating mechanisms on the borders, that will allow to find which of the sides violated ceasefire.

In the presence of such indifference it became clear for Azerbaijan, that it can go even further than expected. To put it otherwise, the silence of the international community and first of all of the Co-Chairs became a “green light” for Azerbaijan  which led to the four-day war and took the lives of many innocent children and elderly people. However even in this case the reaction by the international community was not adequate. Only due to NKR Defense Army Azerbaijan got a deserved counter blow which made its expectations and desires reduce immediately and dramatically.