No Considerable Progress Seems to be Expected in the Negotiation Process

• 02.04.2015, 02:52
• Anna Karapetyan
•  Region,  "Insight" Analytical Center ,  World,  Armenia,  NKR,  Analytics

 - The beginning of 2015 was intense as we witnessed tensions both on NKR-Azerbaijan and RA-Azerbaijan borders. In this context what are your assumptions on future perspectives in the negotiation process?

 - The situation we witness is the result of both internal and global political developments. Taking into consideration a number of factors there are several scenarios of future possible developments that are to be identified. 

First, taking into consideration the strained relations between the West and Russia in a number of issues, at the same time the sense of mutual importance they attach to each other, one can assume that the OSCE Minsk Group format can serve as an appropriate platform for Russia and the West to work and cooperate in a productive way, thus showing an example of a success story/a precedent. In this case each of the co-chairs will strive to achieve constructive cooperation.

In case of the opposite scenario, their confrontation and strained relations can also be expressed in the OSCE Minsk Group format. In this case each of the co-chairs will strive to monopolize the negotiation process trying to succeed in it individually; for this purpose using all possible means; exertion of all existing leverages on the conflicting sides included. The monopolization of the negotiation process by any of the co-chairs brings a number of threats with it; the evidence of which was James Warlick’s speech in Carnegie Institute.

Second, the parties engaged in the negotiation process can take advantage of different global developments. To put it more precisely Azerbaijan, for example, taking advantage of its impunity, tries to escalate the conflict thus strengthening its positions on the negotiation table; continuing to manipulate with his formula where Azerbaijan’s not starting war is presented as a concession.

One should also take into consideration that this year is the 100th anniversary of the Armenian Genocide. In this context it is not excluded that Turkey can make efforts to induce Azerbaijan to such actions which will distract the attention of both Armenia and the international community from the Genocide issue. In this case maximum alertness from Armenia is demanded.

In June of 2015 Azerbaijan is going to host European Olympic Games. In this context Azerbaijan will need to maintain stability and his authority by organizing this event of great international importance in a proper way. It can be expected that for this period Azerbaijan will not go to any provocation; the same cannot be stated for the period following the European Olympic Games.

Concluding all the above mentioned  it should be assumed that some escalation is to be  expected on the  borders for  the period from March  to May, to put it more generally after European games.

Overall today there is no reason to be optimistic as no considerable progress seems to be expected in the negotiation process.