Is the Key to the Ukrainian Crisis Settlement Found?

• 10.07.2015, 21:18
• Anna Karapetyan
•  Europe,  "Insight" Analytical Center ,  Analytics

As a result of the last meeting of the "Normandy Four" some positive tendencies in the Ukrainian crisis settlement are noticed. Donetsk’s and Luhansk’s Peoples Republics have already announced about the decision to postpone the local elections. The process of the withdrawal of the heavy artillery of less than 100 mm caliber from the eastern Ukrainian regions of Donetsk and Luhansk have already started, the sides have also agreed on the exchange of prisoners.

What was agreed during the meeting of the "Normandy Four" and what made the sides make compromises?

The main issues of the discussions were the withdrawal of the artillery, the local elections in Luhansk and Donetsk, the question of the amnesty and exchange of prisoners.

The formula, announced by the Chancellor of Germany Angela Merkel after the meeting, shows the vision of the mediators and the key to the settlement of the crisis. "Ukraine quite rightly expects that its territorial integrity is respected, perhaps not with regard to Crimea, but for the rest of the country," Merkel said after a meeting with the leaders of France, Russia and Ukraine in Paris.

This shows that the international community considers Crimea a concession to Russia for which the latter should use its resources to force Donbass return under the authority of Kiev. The deal seems to be "signed", Russia promised to speak with the authorities of Donetsk and Luhansk, as a result of which on October 6 they announced about the decision to postpone the elections.

The president of France announced that the local elections in these regions will take place after the adoption of the changes in the laws. That means that after the approval of the changes in the Constitution of Ukraine and adoption of the special status of Donetsk and Luhansk in any formulation, the elections will take place and all Ukrainian parties will have a right to participate in the elections. Actually, Donetsk and Luhansk will be returned under the sovereignty of Ukraine.

This is the continuation of the Minsk process but with new arrangements, as the old ones are not fully implemented. Kiev was not ready to pay the needed price for this deal. But the question is, whether the concession in the form of Crimea can be acceptable for the Ukrainian society.

It’s natural that the authorities will do their best to show that they will continue the struggle for Crimea and will announce that the return of Luhask and Donetsk are the first step on the way of returning Crimea.

The motivation of the sides to make compromises is not only connected with the Ukrainian crisis. Germany and France, as the key players of the EU and the countries who have the most problems connected with the migration crisis, have already come to the conclusion that the issue of migrants and Syria should be solved in cooperation with Russia. And they look for the ways to resume the dialogue.

Russia also looks for the ways of cooperation with the West on Syrian crisis and ISIS, the prove of which are the last meetings in New York.

 Ukraine needs progress in the crisis resolution to move forward the process of European integration not to lose the support of Europe.

All these factors can move the sides to resume dialogue on different geopolitical issues, and the Ukrainian crisis is one of the most important ones.