What Did Vienna Meeting Give to Azerbaijan?

• 05.21.2016, 22:15
• Arpine Hovsepyan
•  Region,  "Insight" Analytical Center ,  World,  Armenia,  NKR

On May 16 in Vienna by the initiative of the American side the meeting of the Presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan took place in which the representatives of foreign affairs of the co-chair states (Foreign Minister of Russia Sergey Lavorv, State Secretary of the US John Kerry and French Minister of State for European affairs, Harlem Désir) also took part. It was the first meeting between Sargsyan and Aliyev after the April four-day war.

What were the results of the meeting?

First, in the statement made by the OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs it is stated that they reaffirm that: "the conflict cannot have a military solution." The Co-Chairs emphasized the importance of preserving the 1994 and 1995 ceasefire agreements. This is what refers to the Co-Chairs and to their positions.

As for the points agreed by the Presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan, then according to the joint statement of the OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs, they are as follows:

• The presidents reaffirms their commitment to the ceasefire regime and peaceful resolution of the conflict,
• In order to reduce the possibility of future violence they agreed to finalize the initiative of an investigation mechanism in a possible shortest term,
• The presidents agreed to expand the office of Special Representative of the OSCE Chairperson-in-Office,
• They agreed to continue the exchange of the information about the missing person under the auspice of ICRC,
• The presidents agreed to hold the next stage of the negotiations in June in a mutually accepted place aiming at starting the negotiations on comprehensive conflict settlement.

In addition summarizing the results of  the meeting the Russian Foreign Minister also noted that "the work on agreeing the final settlement  parameters of Karabakh conflict will continue."

"Probably taking into consideration the tense enough situation among the sides we will be forced to do it stage by stage. There is a possibility of agreeing on the settlement parameters of the first stage. They were formulated in the framework of the Russian mediation and are in parallel to the common stance of the Co-Chairs as well as received the supports of the French and the US Co-Chairs," Lavrov stated. He also added that there is ground to assume that "the Armenian and Azerbaijani negotiators will be prone to formulate compromises."

What did Azerbaijan gain?

In Vienna Azerbaijan was forced to accept the failure of its military adventure. At the expense of hundreds of human casualties Azerbaijan was not able to realize its plans, which for sure could not be what Azerbaijan has today. Azerbaijan hoped to occupy at least one region by a swift war in order to dictate its conditions to the sides on the negotiating table.

It did not happen. On the contrary, the meeting in Vienna showed that the very Azerbaijan is the side, which should make concessions in the negotiations and  after long years of refusal  Azerbaijan was forced to give its consent  to the deployment of investigation measures.

Azerbaijan was forced to concede and to agree to expand the office of Special Representative of the OSCE Chairperson-in-Office, which become one of the main agreements of the Vienna meeting. Although today Azerbaijan tries to question its consent: "There can be no essential changes in Andrzej Kasprzyk’s powers. It is the position of Minsk Group mentioned there and we took no responsibility in that," Deputy Head of the Presidential Administration of Azerbaijan Novruz Mammadov stated. It turns out that the Azerbaijani side being forced to give its consent to this point avoids voicing it searching for other comments.

After Vienna meeting Azerbaijan and its President Ilham Aliyev were forced to accept the results of April four-day war. Azerbaijan realized that it cannot resolve Karabakh conflict in a military way. Vienna meeting participants also understand it.

Azerbaijan also understands that they cannot be given another opportunity to resort to military adventurism. The political, military, financial and other resources invested in closing eyes on Azerbaijan’s actions, in giving a late response and in other things will not be easy to regain either.

What refers to Vienna meeting and its results that can be positive for Azerbaijan, then they are as follows:

First, in essence Azerbaijan questioned the importance of preserving 1994 and 1995 ceasefire agreements which was emphasized by the Co-Chairs. This is the reason why Deputy Head of the Presidential Administration of Azerbaijan Novruz Mammadov declared that "in Vienna meeting Azerbaijan agreed on continuing the negotiations on further strengthening ceasefire regime." That is Azerbaijan once more pointed to the ceasefire agreement reached on April 5, but not to the ceasefire agreement reached in 1994 and 1995, once more avoiding to voice it.

And finally probably the most important: Azerbaijan was not punished for launching wide-scale military aggression. It was not forced to move its forces back to the positions before April 1, the unacceptability of the use or threat of the use of force was not confirmed in any way ( just the commitment  to  the ceasefire regime and peaceful resolution of conflict was re-confirmed).

The OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs  trying to please the sides again avoided addressed statements without defining an appropriate punishments for an aggressor. Azerbaijan, by force of habit, will perceive this as a "green light" to turn to provocations in the future as well.