UK General Elections: Brexit – Main Confrontation Point

• 05.06.2015, 20:25
•  Europe,  "Insight" Analytical Center ,  World,  Analytics

With less than a day left to the UK General elections according to the polls the ruling Conservative party takes a tiny advantage, which, however, cannot be an indicator for predicting the results of the elections.

In the elections the main gambling issue of the parties is the question of holding a referendum on Britain's leaving the European Union (British exit- Brexit). Today the question of Brexit has made the elections in Britain a pan-European issue.

Speaking ahead of Thursday’s UK general elections, the Prime Minister of the country David Cameron stated that he would "not lead a government that doesn't have that referendum in law and carried out".  Cameron has promised to renegotiate the UK’s EU membership followed by an 'in/out' referendum by the end of 2017, if his party wins a majority of the seats.

Led by Nigel Farage, the UK Independence Party (UKIP), as its name would indicate, wants autonomy even sooner. Nevertheless, they never got along with Cameron.

While the leader of the Labour Party  Ed Miliband thinks quitting the Union would be an enormous mistake that would actually heart Britain. The Labour party is against referendum, but there are signs that the Liberal Democrats, usually the most pro-EU of the main UK parties, could abandon their position and form coalition deal with Cameron’s party. 

The leaders of the two leading political forces have started a real rush, they are already starting to threaten each other. As the day is closer, Labour leader Ed Miliband says he will try "to turn the tables" on David Cameron in the final days of the election campaign by denying the UK would be "run for Scotland" under Labour and claiming it would be "run for the wealthy and powerful" if the Conservatives retain power. These announcements are aimed at the Scottish electorate, who used to struggle a lot under the Tories. But then it seems that there is another deal between the Labour party and the Scottish National Party. In an interview with The Independent, David Axelrod, the American strategist who is now advising Miliband, disclosed how Labour plans to limit the damage of Tory claims about a post-election deal between Labour and the Scottish National Party, who fear Brexit now just as much as they used to do so when voting on independence. At the same time it should be noted that Conservatives' victory may lead to another referendum in Scotland leaving the UK.

"The question is: who is this country going to be run for?" - Mr Axelrod said. "Cameron is absolutely right about the question. But it is not a question of whether the country is going to be run for Scotland. It is a question of whether the country is going to be run for the wealthy and powerful  interests, who have thrived and prospered under Tory policies while everyday working people have struggled just to keep up."

At the same time Cameron has his opponents on the other side of the Irish sea: Ireland’s business community fears that if the Conservatives win, it could become a real catastrophy for the country’s economy. Ireland which is to some extend dependent on trade with the UK ( about 1bn euros  gained in trade between the two countries, supporting about 400,000 jobs), is against the UK quitting the EU, thus being against David Cameron and his party, who promise a referendum on Brexit.

The upcoming elections can be called "hard times for Cameron". Thus the PM puts the risky step as a core idea of his election campaign- the question of country to leave the European Union, which not many people would agree with. At the same time Miliband doesn't either have real support: those in favour of the Labour party are mainly Cameron opponents and those not supporting Brexit.

Britain, which has never been a perfect member for the EU, and only engaged with EU initiatives that were in line with its own interests, today is acting the same way.

Anyway, if the U.K. decides it does want to quite the Union, it will have to bypass another hurdle on how to do that: there are several options.

 The first option is that it could follow the example of Norway and join the European Economic Area (EEA) and the European Free Trade Association (EFTA), but that would mean hard times in relations with Germany and France.

Another possible model is the one of the Switzerland. However, taking into consideration the country has fought a lot to have the trade agreements of today with individual EU and EFTA states, that hardly seems practical.

Customs Union (for example the one that Turkey has), might be a model, but then it would only protect English business straight with Europe, and wouldn't allow London to provide services on equal terms with Germany and France separately.

Relationships with allies, like the United States (maybe also other crucial partners), could also be jeopardized by Britain no longer being part of the Brussels-led machine.  

On May 7, Britons will decide on whether they want to have a say later on the subject. Here both versions exist: they do or they don't.