Peace in the Region Should be the Primary Objective of the Mediators, then the Peace Agreement

• 05.13.2015, 23:16
•  Region,  "Insight" Analytical Center ,  Armenia,  NKR

21 years ago on May 12 ceasefire agreement signed during the Bishkek process between Nagorno-Karabakh, Azerbaijan and Armenia entered into force. At that time, for the participants of the Minsk process that started in 1992, it was obvious that the conflict will not be able to settle quickly. When the Bishkek protocols entered into force, the large-scale military actions stopped, the cost of which was a large number of casualties from both the Azerbaijani and the Armenian sides. However, each of the following 21 years took away dozens of lives. In 2012, Armenian armed forces had 14 losses, in 2013 - over 10 and in 2014 – 28.

In 2015, there is an unprecedented increase in the number of border incidents provoked by Azerbaijan. The types of weapons used by the opponent have also changed, becoming more aggressive. The fact that as a result of counter- or punishing actions of the Armenian side the losses of the opponent are being several times more, does not comfort either. On the background of all these the war rhetoric, hatred and anti-Armenian propaganda of Baku do not allow to hope that the situation will be changed in favor of peace.

Of course, in parallel with this the attempts of the mediators directed towards using any opportunity of an event with the participation of Armenia and Azerbaijan and promoting settlement of the conflict do not stop. It is a little bit difficult to say what the expectations of the latters are from these initiatives. During more than 20 years of the Minsk process, it seems, both Armenia and Azerbaijan should have been convicted that without the people of Artsakh discussing the fate of Artsakh is not that much effective.

In terms of trying to achieve peace it is not effective at all to follow how one side of the conflict tries to make the use of force as a means for influenceing the process and the outcome of negotiations.  The same mediators have repeatedly voiced the need for confidence building between the parties. What kind of trust there can be under the gunfire? How can we trust a country where the official websites delete the Armenian flag from a photo and promote hatred towards Armenians at the presidential level?

So maybe is it the time for mediators to use all their opportunities to establish trust or remove existing obstacles? In this context, it can be very important, for example, in parallel with the negotiations to sign an agreement on non-use of force or threat of force. Another method to establish trust is monitoring and formation,  use of mechanisms for the expression of xenophobic statements by government officials and the media by the conflicting parties. This, by the way, can be done by the Council of Europe, which is so eager to contribute to the solution of the conflict, and in the territory of which are Azerbaijan and Armenia, as well as Nagorno-Karabakh Republic - recognized or not recognized.

Such kind of ideas can be a lot, but it is worth noting that it is time for mediators to prefer real peace in the region that is perhaps more modest, but definitely more urgent to ambitious goal of a peace agreement between the conflicting parties.