Liberation of Mosul: Why Has ISIS Become So Weak?

• 07.19.2017, 15:10
•  Near East,  World,  Analytics

Suhaib Salem / Reuters

The past week began with the news about the liberation of Mosul from the terrorist organization "Islamic State". The Iraqi Army and the American Air Force needed about 10 months to liberate the city.

Mosul liberation, of course, is of tactical importance for Iraq, but it is difficult to describe it as a victory against the "Islamic State" in Iraq or the start of the establishment of stability in that country. The terrorists continue to control a significant part of Iraqi territory - the southwestern part of the state of Nainava, the most of the province of Anbar, the oil-rich Kirkuk, some parts of the western Rutbah province, and so on.

At the same time, it is obvious that Islamists have not left Musul completely and will continue the partisan struggle: last week the first terrorist act has already taken place in Mosul. Mosul has a serious moral and psychological significance for ISIS, besides its strategic importance. With the capture of this city, the creation of "Islamic Caliphate" began in 2014. At the same time, the situation in Mosul is more complicated than the situation after liberation of Aleppo: the attitude of the locals is very controversial to the Iraqi army and their American allies, and it is not ruled out that they can be targeted also by the locals.

Thus, a definite time is needed for the truly liberation of the city, but it is already obvious that the liberation of Mosul is irreversible. In the recent years, due to the heavy battles in both Iraq and Syria, ISIS has been weakened, so it will be difficult for it to recapture the city. At the same time there is a certain splitting in the organization, about which speaks the fact that a group of terrorists proclaimed Iraqi Tel-Afar as an independent state from the "caliphate". It is believed that such moods among terrorists are conditioned by the likvidation of the IS leader al-Baghdadi. Though, ISIS militants did not officially confirm this news, some sources in the organization confirmed the death of al-Baghdadi, in addition, the terrorist group abolished the ban on discussing the death of the leader, and also canceled the punishment for violating this ban, which proves the authenticity of this news.

Thus, despite the claims that the ISIS is not like the other terrorist organizations, and its activity is not conditioned by personalities, the fact of losing the leader cannot impact on its activities. It seems that before the new leadership of the organization is strengthened, ISIS will carry out more passive actions. At the same time, there is no hurry from the Iraqi and American forces: they have not even decided what territories will be liberated after Mosul. As a result, the situation in Iraq after the liberation of Mosul has not changed much: military actions will not be very active for some time. It is expected that in the near future battles on the Middle East issue on international platforms will be more active as the Iraqi and especially American authorities gain a serious victory card due to the liberation of Mosul.