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US Arms Supply to Ukraine Will Bring New Tensions in the Conflict

 

"Armedia" Information, Analytical Agency presents an interview with an expert of "Insight" Analytical Center for Applied Policy and Research, Narek Minasyan.

 

- Recently the US House of Representatives with the majority of the votes adopted a resolution on providing military equipment to Ukraine. Why are American parliamentarians so actively involved in this issue? Will the US take this step? 

- First of all I should mention that the "House Resolution 162" adopted by the House of Representatives calls on the President of the US "to provide military assistance to Ukraine for protecting the sovereignty and the territorial integrity of Ukraine." Thus, in its sense it has more an advisory nature and is not obligatory, another question is, whether the White House will take such a step or not.

It is noteworthy that if previously mainly Republicans were demanding to provide military assistance to Ukraine, then in the case of this resolution a great number of Democrats also joined. Such interest of the Republicans is conditioned by their close links with the military-industrial complex of the country. The Republicans in the US have traditionally given much importance to the army, as for the foreign affairs of the country – to the solution of the problems with hard power. To have a full picture what I mean, it is enough to see the number of US interventions during the power of Democrat and Republican presidents in the recent 20-30 years.

As for the Democrats, who also voted for the resolution, most probably, it is the internal political conjuncture, particularly the preparations for the next presidential elections, as well as the pressure of the lobbyist groups protecting the interests of the military industry that have played a certain role.

It should be mentioned that the Republican Party, which is majority in the Congress, is in quite a beneficial condition now. Particularly, if the White House continues preserving its current position on providing military assistance to Ukraine, then the pressure on the Democrat Obama will significantly increase taking into consideration Democrats' support to the resolution. In case of providing military assistance the Republicans also will benefit, or it is better to say, first of all it will be the heads of the Military industry having close links with Republicans that will be most satisfied with the decision to provide military assistance.

It is also interesting that the intensification of the conflict because of the military assistance, if it is provided, is also in the interests of the Republicans, as on the one hand it will seriously hurt the reputation of Obama, and on the other hand it will provide greater and long-term profits for the military-industrial complex.

 

 - What consequences can providing military assistance have on the Ukrainian crisis?

I think in this stage of the conflict providing military assistance will have a negative influence leading to a dramatic increase of the tension between Ukraine and self-proclaimed republics, as welll as "obliging" Russia to come up with counter actions. Even the US allies – Germany, France, Italy and Spain are against providing military weapons to Ukraine, that is to say there is no common approach inside NATO on this issue. So far, only 2 NATO members - the Czech Republic and Lithuania, have officially provided some military assistance to Ukraine, and the United States has provided $320 million.

Providing American weapons will most certainly exacerbate the already tense relations between the Ukrainian army and rebel in the dividing zone, where even Minsk agreements are being implemented with some difficulty, because of the violations of the agreements by the two sides.

Though the American side has declared it more than once that the weapons it will provide, will not be offensive, this phenomenon in itself will inspire the Ukrainian side, which can bring itself adventurous actions and on the other hand, it will at least make the Russian side nervous, which will see this step as the US involvement in the Ukrainian conflict.

Of course, it will bring counter actions, both direct and indirect – with the help of the self-proclaimed republics. I can bring the example of Mikhail Yemelyanov's, first deputy leader of Just Russia Party, suggestion to Duma to give the President of Russia right to send troops to Ukraine.

Given the current tension between Russia and the West, as well as fragility of relative stability of the Minsk Agreements, we cannot exclude that US arms supplies to Ukraine will lead to a new tension in the conflict, the resolution of which will be quite difficult.

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