Repositioning of Forces in Syria

• 02.17.2016, 11:15
• Arpine Hovsepyan
•  Near East,  "Insight" Analytical Center ,  World

Along with the intensification of military operations in Syria there is a process of repositioning of forces involved in the conflict. Russian military presence, deepening of regional differences, new bets made on conflicting sides have turned Syria into a war theater, where various interests of the United States, Russia, Turkey, Iran, Saudi Arabia and several other key players intersect.

The successes of the Syrian Army backed by Russian and Iranian forces on one hand and the Kurdish rebels on the other, have endangered the future financing of terrorist groups that receive support from Ankara. Moods for encouraging military intervention are growing in Ankara as the last chance to save Turkish leverages in the Syrian conflict. At last, Turkey is not ready to accept the creation of a Kurdish state on its borders.

Turkish ambitions of military intervention at this stage coincide with Saudi Arabia’s activation in Syria. Al-Riyadh considers military cooperation with Turkey as a strategic necessity to protect the security of the Gulf region and to restrain the spread of Iranian influence in the region, first of all, in Syria, Yemen and Iraq.

However, it should be noted that there are weighty circumstances restraining Turkey’s military intervention in Syria. 

First of all, Ankara cannot start ground operations without the support of its air forces that now cannot be used. Secondly, Turkey’s allies, the US and NATO have not yet send any signals on their willingness to increase their military involvement in the conflict. Thirdly, Turkish ground operations in Syria would mean direct confrontation with Russia.

Despite these factors, the risk that Turkey may go to war persists. Turkish shelling of Kurdish positions in northern Syria perhaps is the evidence.

Thus, the clash of interests between Turkey and Russia, Iran and Saudi Arabia, other forces, as well as the lack of control over all the forces acting on the ground raise doubts on the agreements reached at Munich to establish a ceasefire in Syria.

Generally, it seems that the end of this crisis is not yet visible. It may attract new powers thus turning into a wider war.

Besides, the repositioning of forces on the ground, probably, one should also wait for repositioning of superpowers at a global level.