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Aliyev Confessed that He is Being Forced to Recognize the Independence of NKR

Last week the President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev announced that in the context of Karabakh conflict settlement, he is put under pressure to recognize the independence of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic. He said that the criticism of the western media and NGOs directed towards Azerbaijan are also aimed at putting pressure on Azerbaijan. He made one more important announcement, saying that as long as they (Aliyevs) are on the head of Azerbaijan, Baku will never agree tor recognize NKR.

There are many reasons for such kind of announcement: to blackmail the Co-Chairs of the Minsk Group and make some details of the negotiations public, to become heroes for the Azerbaijani society and to try to show their own power. But the most important thing here is not the motives of such announcement but the conclusions that can be made.

First, in fact, for the first time the President of the Azerbaijan confessed that the issue of the recognition of the independence of NKR is on the table of negotiations. In the past, the Azerbaijani side not only did not speak about it, but also tried to avoid the need of publication the Madrid principles, that are the basis of negotiations. According to Madrid principles, as we now, the final status of the Karabakh should be decided by a referendum, which will most likely lead to the recognition of the independence of NKR.

Second, the negotiation process had moved in such a way that Aliyev now has to raise the issue of the recognition of the independence of NKR among Azerbaijani society and at the same time in this way he tries to awake discontent of the society and use it to show that the recognition is "impossible". This shows that the positions of the Armenian sides are so acceptable and grounded for international community, which led forcing Azerbaijan recognize NKR. This is, of course, the result of the continuous work of the Armenian diplomacy. It is also not excluded that this kind of change in the position of the world community is also conditioned by the aggression of Azerbaijan against NKR in the April of this year.

Third, when Aliyev said that Azerbaijan will not recognize NKR until they are on the head of the state, he again stressed the need of the heritage of power by Alyev clan. He tries to link the strong position of Azerbaijan in the negotiations with his person and the power of his clan. This can also be considered as a blackmail to his own society, saying "if you don’t want to lose the hope to return Karabakh, we must stay on power".

To conclude, we  can say that his announcement shows the weakness of Aliyev’s position not only in the negotiations, but also on the international arena and in his country.  

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