Karabakh Four-Day War and Turkish Calculations

• 04.13.2016, 09:31
• Arpine Hovsepyan
•  Region,  "Insight" Analytical Center ,  World,  Armenia,  NKR,  Analytics

The four-day war unleashed by Azerbaijan on the entire NKR-Azerbaijani border, has created a new reality in the region, forcing to think about the development of the necessary strategies to face the challenges arising from the current situation and to use the given opportunities. This problem was also faced by Turkey, the example of which is particularly interesting, considering its regional interests and "brotherly relations" with Azerbaijan.

How did Turkey react to the aggressive actions of Azerbaijan against NKR? What are the motives of the Turkish position? What did Turkey win or lose as a result of all this? Let's try to find answers to all these questions.

Turkey's involvement in Azerbaijan's actions were expressed both directly and indirectly.

In the recent days, the Turkish authorities with all possible levels expressed unconditional support to their "brotherly Azerbaijan". Turkish President Rejep Tayyip Erdogan, Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu and other leaders spared no effort to convince Azerbaijan that "Turkey will remain shoulder to shoulder with Azerbaijan until the end." Moreover, Turkey makes every effort to encourage Azerbaijan to continue armed attacks. "As long as Azerbaijani lands under occupation are not liberated, including Nagorno-Karabakh, we, 78 million of us, will continue to stand side by side with Azerbaijan," the Prime Minister of Turkey stated openly.

As for the direct aid to Azerbaijan by Turkey, it is no secret that Ankara provides Baku with military equipment and personnel. Among Azerbaijani armed forces there are officers and instructors of the Turkish army. Moreover, there is some information about the participation of militants of Turkish nationalist organization "Grey Wolves" in the Karabakh blitzkrieg.

However, this is not all. Some NKR officials mention that the number number of Azerbaijanis, Turks and other nationals who fought in the ranks of "Islamic state" terrorist organization among the Azerbaijani armed forces is not small. The number of Azerbaijanis who fought in Syria in the ranks of IS exceeds 2,500. And surely it can be argued that Turkey and Azerbaijan are actively involved in their operations against the NKR. These mercenary terrorists have committed atrocities also in Azerbaijani villages on the border with Artsakh, looting and raping the local Azerbaijani population.

It is significant that even after April 5, after the ceasefire in Karabakh, Turkey continues its political line, ignoring the appeals of the international community, who emphasize the need to exclude the involvement of "external players". Moreover, the statements of the Turkish authorities in support of Azerbaijan have become more and more "emotional and inspiring."

This, of course, should be considered within the framework of the need to keep Azerbaijan in the area of ​​its influence and not only in the context of the "brotherly relations'' between Turkey and Azerbaijan. Turkey is trying with all possible ways to prevent the growing influence on Azerbaijan of other regional players, in this case - Russia. Besides, this is not only due to the current geopolitical developments, but also due to need to keep Azerbaijan among a number of Turkic-speaking forces in a broader context. And this task, especially after the collapse of the USSR and the acquisition of independence of Azerbaijan, occupies an important place on the agenda of Turkish politics.

In an effort to keep Azerbaijan in the area of ​​its influence, Ankara also solves a number of other tasks. In particular, the media, standing close to the Turkish authorities, began to spread rumors that the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) supports the Armenian side, by sending fighters to Artsakh, in particular. By spreading such misinformation Ankara solves two problems. First, it justifies military action carried out against the Kurds, stressing the danger of its spread. Second, indirectly blaming Russia in cooperation with PKK, because it is no secret that the Armenian-Turkish border is controlled by Russian forces.

Of course, as a result, Turkey loses the prospects of realization of certain ideas. In particular, Azerbaijan and Turkey, especially in the last period, were not sparing efforts for changing the format of the OSCE Minsk Group dealing with the settlement of the Karabakh conflict, in order to show the international community the need for including Turkey in it and explaining the need for maintaining the balance. If until now there was at least a small opportunity for the success of such efforts, now it became obvious for the sides involved in the conflict settlement and in general for the world that the inclusion of a country that is guided by such destructive methods, among the OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs is unacceptable.

It turns out that in an effort to keep Azerbaijan in the area of ​​its influence, Turkey sacrifices the prospect to be among the Minsk Group Co-Chairs. Instead, Ankara could go with a more pragmatic way. After all, even if Azerbaijan as a result of strengthening of Russian influence becomes an EAEU and CSTO member, then Baku might become a representative of the interests of Ankara in these organizations. After all, we have such a precedent in the history, since in the Soviet Union Azerbaijan did serve the interests of Turkey.

Calculation of the Turkish authorities could be wrong. If further developments doe mot go the way Ankara wants it, Turkey may lose not only the prospects of being included in theranks of the Co-Chairs of the Minsk Group, but even the possibility to keep Azerbaijan in the area of its ​​influence. In this case, the possibility that such a strategic failure of the Turkish authorities would cause the change of power in the country is not excluded. And the experience of military coups in Turkey have been well studied...