The First Signs of Russian-Turkish Crisis Settlement

• 03.31.2016, 11:55
• Arpine Hovsepyan
•  EEU,  Near East,  "Insight" Analytical Center ,  World

Since November 2015 relations between Russia and Turkey have been at the center international attention, making us develop a new strategy to avoid challenges resulting from the crisis and to take advantage of new opportunities.

The downing of the Russian Su-24 bomber by Turkey on November 24 opened a new chapter in the relationship of these two countries, turning the close allies of the recent years into uncompromising rivals.

At first it seemed Moscow and Ankara will hardly prefer to lead Russia-Turkey relations to a final deadlock. It was expected that after the first tough statements they will soften their position, but it did not happen. On the contrary, Russia and Turkey began using all their cards in order to harm each other as much as possible.

Russia, perceiving the downing of the Russian Su-24 bomber as a betrayal, contributed to the final failure of Turkey's Syrian policy, including the airstrikes to help the Syrian Army to cut off the main supply lines of terrorists that come from Turkey. Moscow even went further, touching more sensitive issues for Turkey, such as the Syrian Turkmens and Kurds. Russia also greatly damaged Turkish economy that was already suffering due to recent regional developments.

Turkey, in its turn, outwardly avoiding sound actions, took active steps at diplomatic level, once again activating the Crimean Tatars’ factor. Russia has become the main promoter of the Turkish-Ukrainian cooperation. It especially became obvious during the official visit of the President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko to Turkey. Both sides decided to enhance strategic partnership between Ukraine and Turkey in the sphere of security and defense amid the "aggressive policy of Russia".

About 4 months have passed since the Russian-Turkish tensions have started to decrease. On March 24 Rosaviation permitted Ural Airlines to operate regular passenger flights to Antalya (the ban on charter flights between Russia and Turkey was introduced by Moscow on December 1, 2015).

On the same day the Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said the crisis between Russia and Turkey is a temporary one. Later Russian Federation Council speaker Valentina Matviyenko said Moscow is ready to unfreeze relations with Ankara if Turkey admits its responsibility. Russia is waiting for Turkey’s further steps.

It should be reminded that Russia wants Turkey to apologize, pay compensation for damage and punish those who are guilty for the incident.

The current situation reminds the "Mavi Marmara" incident which became the reason of the deterioration of relations between Israel and Turkey in 2010. Ankara also wanted Israel to apologize and pay compensation. In 2013 Tel-Aviv apologized with the mediation of the US President Barack Obama, after which they started the settlement process. Today Turkey and Israel announce about significant progress in the process.

However, it should be noted that Russia refuses all the possible mediations to overcome the crisis with Turkey. Such mediation attempts have been made by Azerbaijan, Kazahkstan, Qatar. It is not excluded that Germany and the US have also made such attempts.

The current situation in the region also contributes to the normalization of relations. Particularly, after losing its last leverages in Syria, Turkey understands the need to cooperate with Russia, also taking into consideration the key role that Russia has taken in the Syrian crisis.

On the other hand, the dialogue with Turkey will give Russia a chance at least to neutralize Turkey's destructive stance on the Syrian settlement process. And it will greatly increase Russia’s international reputation.

The successful experience of cooperation during the same Syrian conflict is enough to understand that these two countries are able to put aside their differences when it refers to their interests.