Who Is the Target of Turkey in Syria?

• 07.07.2015, 12:05
• Liana Hovhannisyan
•  Near East,  "Insight" Analytical Center ,  World

The thesis of the Turkey’s possible incursion to Syria has been actively circulating in the international and specifically in the Turkish media recently. Before any estimation on the possibility of Turkish intrusion to Syria is made, it is important to clarify against whom the actions of Turkey in Syria are to be directed – against president of Syria Bashar al-Assad, against Kurdish forces fighting in Syria or against the forces of the terrorist group Islamic State (IS)? It is important to identify the target because dependent on it the challenges of Turkey will vary.  

First, if the target of Turkey in Syria is going to be Kurdish forces fighting in Syria, it can cause a new wave of resistance in Turkey by its Kurdish population, as it happened recently when the Turkish government tried to prevent the Kurds in Turkey, who tried to join their compatriots fighting against IS in Syria. In fact, if the Turkey starts a fight in Syria against the Kurds, then the Kurds in Turkey will again hurry to protect their compatriots in Syria but this time against the Turkish government.  In this context,  it is to be also mentioned that the leverages of  the Kurds on the Turkish government increased after June 7 elections in Turkey, when Kurdish Democratic Party managed to win 10 percent threshold and become represented in the Turkish parliament as a party.

Because of unwillingness or inability of Turkish government, the Turkish-Syrian border today has become a main path to Syria for the IS fighters. If Turkey openly targets IS in Syria, then it will take short time from the IS to organize terrorist activities in Turkey as well and to turn the country into chaos. In the context often disseminated recent news on detecting a large amount of illegal explosives in various cities of Turkey, is not accidental.

Third, if the Turkish government target Assad forces, then it will arrive in the opposite camp against important regional  players, Iran and Russia, who continue to support the present regime in Syria. However, now, when Erdogan tries to derive utmost benefits from the strained relations between the West and Russia as well as from possible outcome of Iran nuclear negotiations, it will not be in the interest of the Turkish government.

This if we try to sum up then we are to state that before invading Syria Turkey first of all should  make clear whom it is  going to target there. Only then it will be possible  to estimate the challenges they are going to face in order  to measure Turkey’s ability to resist those challenges.